Sign In Join Free
Colour scheme
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง UK โ–พ
Home/ Glossary/ Edge

Edge explained

Your advantage over the price, usually expressed as expected value in percent.

Edge is the size of your advantage on a bet: how much better the odds are than the outcome's true probability warrants. An edge of 5% means that, per ยฃ100 staked, you expect ยฃ5 of profit in the long run. Edges in sports betting are small โ€” professionals get excited about 2โ€“5% โ€” because betting markets are competitive and mostly efficient.

Claimed edges should be treated sceptically, including ours. The honest test of an edge is settlement over a large sample: if a method's graded record over hundreds of bets shows positive return, the edge is real; if not, it was noise. This is why we archive every tip before kick-off and publish the settled results, wins and losses alike.

Worked example

Best available price 2.30 against a fair probability of 46%: edge = (0.46 ร— 2.30) โˆ’ 1 = +5.8%. At flat ยฃ10 stakes over 500 such bets, expected profit is about ยฃ290 โ€” with substantial swings along the way.

Related terms