League tables

Tables tell you what happened — prices tell you what’s next

Standings are the most-read page in football and the most over-read in betting. Position aggregates months of results, luck included, and says nothing directly about the next ninety minutes. Our model deliberately ignores it, rating clubs on time-decayed scoring and conceding rates instead, then comparing the resulting fair odds against the best price available. Where tables earn their keep is context: promotion pushes, relegation fear, dead rubbers in May — information about motivation that no rate-based model can see.