English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
1. FC Köln to win
Odds
2.18
LostResult
1-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
49%Pre-match conf.
-1.8%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Köln's 2.18 price implies roughly 46% win probability, the strongest single outcome across all three results.
02
Werder Bremen's 3.60 odds put their implied win chance at about 28%, notably behind the hosts.
03
The draw is priced at 3.86 (about 26% implied), keeping the match-result market fairly competitive despite Köln's favourite status.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 carries a 59% implied probability but only a slightly negative value edge of -1.52%, indicating near fair pricing rather than a standout value opportunity.
Team form
1FK 1. FC Köln LDLWL
19 Sept 26 @ HSV 1-2
12 Sept 26 vs Bremen 1-1
4 Sept 26 @ Stuttgart 1-4
29 Aug 26 vs Hoffenheim 3-2
16 May 26 @ Bayern 1-5
WB Werder Bremen WDWLL
19 Sept 26 vs Augsburg 3-2
12 Sept 26 @ 1. FC Köln 1-1
5 Sept 26 vs RB Leipzig 3-1
30 Aug 26 @ Freiburg 1-4
16 May 26 vs Dortmund 0-2
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln v Werder Bremen
Full H2H history → D 12 Sept 26
1. FC Köln 1-1 BremenBundesliga
W 12 Apr 26
1. FC Köln 3-1 BremenBundesliga
D 29 Nov 25
Bremen 1-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
W/D/L shown from 1. FC Köln's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen: pre-match preview
Bundesliga action sees 1. FC Köln host Werder Bremen with the hosts installed as clear market favourites. The best available price of 2.18 on a Köln win implies a probability of roughly 46%, well ahead of Werder Bremen's 3.60 (about 28%) and the draw at 3.86 (around 26%). That gap suggests bookmakers expect Köln to control large parts of the game, though a near one-in-four chance of a draw keeps the outcome market from being one-sided. Away from the result market, our model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, implying a 59% chance of at least three goals in the match. The edge on that selection is marginally negative at -1.52%, meaning the price is close to fair value rather than offering a clear market inefficiency, but it remains the most data-supported angle on this fixture.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.68 is the most data-backed angle here, with the market pricing a 59% chance of that outcome. However, the small negative edge means it is not a clear value bet, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence option rather than a strong lean. Bankroll discipline is advised.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 12 Sept 26
Under 2.5 goalsfinal score 1-1
1.62 +0.62u Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen?+
Our tip was 1. FC Köln to win at odds of 2.18.
Who is favourite in the Köln vs Werder Bremen match?+
1. FC Köln are favourites according to the odds, with a best price of 2.18 implying about a 46% win probability, compared to roughly 28% for Werder Bremen.
What is the draw priced at for this fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.86 with the best odds cited, which implies a probability of around 26%.
Is there a value bet for this match?+
No value picks against market consensus reached the threshold for this fixture; the recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, though its edge is slightly negative at -1.52%, so it is close to fair value rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 1-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).