La Liga 2 · Sat · 12:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Ceuta are market favourites at 2.33, implying just under 43% win probability, versus 32.5% for Real Sociedad B at 3.08.
The draw at 3.6 carries a model fair probability of about 29%, giving it a positive edge of roughly 3.18% versus the market price.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 has a 53% implied confidence but shows a slightly negative edge of -4.16%, meaning the price does not fully match the model's fair value.
Overall match-result pricing shows no team is a heavy favourite, keeping the outcome fairly open according to the odds.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.33 |
| 0-1 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.20 |
| 0-0 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.40 and 1.36. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ACF | X | 2 · RSB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| Coolbet | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.52 | 3.02 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.24 | 3.35 | 2.98 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.35 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AD Ceuta FC host Real Sociedad B in a La Liga 2 clash where the betting market leans toward the home side. Best-priced odds of 2.33 for Ceuta imply a win probability of just under 43%, while Real Sociedad B at 3.08 sits around 32.5%, and the draw is priced at 3.6, translating to roughly 28% implied probability. Those numbers point to a moderately favoured home team without a dominant edge, leaving room for either an away upset or a stalemate. Away from the result market, the model's headline recommendation is an Over 2.5 goals play at 1.8, reflecting a 53% implied confidence level, though the calculated edge on that selection is slightly negative. Meanwhile the draw stands out as the market's most interesting angle, with a fair-value edge in its favour compared to the posted price.
Verdict: The model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 as its lead angle, backed by a solid 53% implied confidence, though the edge is marginally negative, so it is not a clear value bet. The draw at 3.6 offers a modestly positive edge and may appeal to bettors seeking value over pure win/loss outcomes. Stake modestly given the mixed signals.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Leganés v Granada CF | 2.20 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| 25 Sept 18:30 | Girona FC v Albacete | 1.58 | 4.54 | 5.75 |
| 26 Sept 14:15 | Granada CF v Andorra CF | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Celta Fortuna v Sabadell FC | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.28 |
| 26 Sept 16:30 | Tenerife v Cádiz CF | 1.82 | 3.63 | 5.50 |
| 27 Sept 12:00 | Real Valladolid CF v Córdoba | 2.33 | 3.57 | 3.18 |
| 27 Sept 14:15 | Mallorca v Almería | 2.07 | 3.51 | 3.99 |
| 27 Sept 16:30 | Burgos CF v CD Eldense | 1.89 | 3.58 | 4.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 54% confidence rating.
AD Ceuta FC are the market favourites, priced at 2.33, which implies a win probability of just under 43 percent, compared to 32.5 percent for Real Sociedad B.
The best available draw price is 3.6 at Coolbet, implying roughly 27.8 percent probability, though the model's fair estimate of 29 percent suggests slight value at this price.
The model finds a positive edge of about 3.18 percent on the draw, while its recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 actually carries a small negative edge of -4.16 percent despite a 53 percent implied confidence level.
AD Ceuta FC vs Real Sociedad B takes place Sat · 12:00 in the La Liga 2.
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