English ⚽ La Liga 🕒 6 Sept 2026
Our tip
Alavés to win
Odds
2.38
WonResult
5-2Final score
+1.38uProfit
45%Pre-match conf.
-0.83%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Alavés are priced shortest at 2.38, implying roughly 42 percent win probability, the highest single outcome in the market.
02
Osasuna's best price of 3.7 implies about 27 percent, making them the outsider in this line-up of odds.
03
The draw at 3.17 sits between the two team prices, implying close to 31.5 percent, a reminder that a stalemate is far from unlikely.
04
The model's 45 percent confidence on Alavés versus the market's 42 percent implied figure produces a 6.49 percent value edge, the only pick flagged above threshold.
Team form
ALA Alavés DLLWW
19 Sept 26 @ Athletic 0-0
15 Sept 26 vs Valencia 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Santander 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Osasuna 5-2
28 Aug 26 vs Villarreal 1-0
CO CA Osasuna DLLLW
19 Sept 26 vs Rayo Vallecano 1-1
16 Sept 26 @ Atleti 0-4
12 Sept 26 vs Espanyol 0-2
6 Sept 26 @ Alavés 2-5
31 Aug 26 vs Getafe 1-0
Head-to-head: Alavés v CA Osasuna
Full H2H history → W 6 Sept 26
Alavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
D 5 Apr 26
Alavés 2-2 OsasunaLa Liga
L 20 Dec 25
Osasuna 3-0 AlavésLa Liga
W/D/L shown from Alavés's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Alavés vs CA Osasuna: pre-match preview
Alavés host CA Osasuna in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. The best available price on Alavés sits at 2.38 with Betfair, which implies a win probability of roughly 42 percent. Osasuna, priced at 3.7 with Coolbet, are seen as clear underdogs at an implied 27 percent, while the draw at 3.17 with 1xBet carries an implied probability near 31.5 percent. Those numbers show a fairly open contest on paper, with the bookmakers' overlay pushing the combined implied probabilities slightly above 100 percent, as is standard. Our model flags Alavés to win at 2.38 as the recommended bet, citing a market-implied confidence of 45 percent against the raw implied probability of about 42 percent, producing a value edge of 6.49 percent for backers willing to take the home price.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Alavés to win at 2.38, supported by a modest 6.49 percent value edge over the market's own implied probability. It is not a dominant favourite situation, so this remains a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence certainty, and bankroll discipline is advised.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 5-2, for a flat-stake return of +1.38 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming La Liga fixtures
All La Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primera Division standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Alavés vs CA Osasuna?+
Our tip was Alavés to win at odds of 2.38.
Who is the betting favourite for Alavés vs Osasuna?+
Alavés are the favourite according to the odds, priced at 2.38 with Betfair, which implies roughly a 42 percent chance of winning, ahead of both the draw and an Osasuna win.
What is the draw priced at in this match?+
The draw is available at 3.17 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 31.5 percent probability, sitting between the two teams' win prices.
Is there value in backing Alavés to win?+
According to the model, yes, Alavés at 2.38 carries a 6.49 percent value edge based on a 45 percent confidence estimate versus the market's implied 42 percent, though no bet is without risk.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 5-2 (+1.38u at flat stakes).