Liga Profesional · kicked off 15 Aug 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
The prices are almost level: Aldosivi at 2.91, Tigre at 2.84 and the draw at 2.80, so the market sees no strong favourite.
Implied probabilities land near 34% for Aldosivi, 35% for Tigre and 36% for the draw, underlining how open the result is.
The draw is actually the shortest of the three outcomes at 2.80, reflecting expectations of a close game.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals pick at 1.67 has a negative value edge of about -4.88%, meaning it is priced slightly against the bettor rather than offering surplus value.
W/D/L shown from Aldosivi Mar del Plata's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
This Liga Profesional clash between Aldosivi Mar del Plata and CA Tigre BA is one the market can barely separate. Aldosivi are priced at 2.91, Tigre at 2.84 and the draw at 2.80, translating to implied probabilities of roughly 34%, 35% and 36% respectively before the bookmaker margin is stripped out. In practical terms, all three outcomes sit within a couple of percentage points of one another, which points to a genuinely tight contest rather than a clear favourite. With the result so open, our model steers away from the match-result markets and instead looks to a goals line. The recommended bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.67, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 57%. It is worth noting this pick shows a negative value edge of about -4.88%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. Treat the fixture as finely balanced and stake responsibly.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 1.5 goals at 1.67, backed by around 57% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk pick rather than a value play, since the price carries a slightly negative edge. With the match result itself a near coin-flip, keep stakes measured.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was CA Tigre BA to win at odds of 2.92.
There is no clear favourite. CA Tigre are marginally shortest at 2.84, with Aldosivi at 2.91 and the draw at 2.80, so the market rates all three outcomes as close.
The draw is priced at 2.80 with 1xBet, which is actually the shortest of the three match-result options and implies roughly a 36% chance.
No value pick cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.67 shows a negative value edge of about -4.88%, so it is a lean based on around 57% confidence rather than a value bet.
The tip lost — final score 0-0 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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