English ⚽ Liga MX 🕒 20 Sept 2026
Our tip
América to win
Odds
2.60
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
42%Pre-match conf.
-1.52%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (NL)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Guadalajara carry the shortest price at 2.45 (about 40.8 percent implied probability), narrowly ahead of América at 2.6 (about 38.5 percent).
02
The draw is priced at 3.35, implying close to 29.9 percent, keeping all three outcomes within a tight range.
03
The model's recommended bet is América to win at 2.6, with a market-implied confidence of 42 percent and a calculated value edge of 8.55 percent.
04
No additional value picks were flagged elsewhere in the market, meaning the América angle is the standout data point from this data set.
Team form
AMÉ América DLWWW
20 Sept 26 vs Guadalajara 2-2
13 Sept 26 @ Cruz Azul 3-4
22 Aug 26 @ FC Juárez 2-1
16 Aug 26 vs Atlético San Luis 3-0
2 Aug 26 vs Santos Laguna 3-0
GUA Guadalajara DWWWW
20 Sept 26 @ América 2-2
14 Sept 26 vs Pumas 3-0
5 Sept 26 @ Atlético San Luis 3-0
23 Aug 26 vs Tijuana 5-2
17 Aug 26 @ Santos Laguna 1-0
Head-to-head: América v Guadalajara
D 20 Sept 26
América 2-2 GuadalajaraLiga MX
W/D/L shown from América's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
América vs Guadalajara: pre-match preview
América host Guadalajara in a closely priced Liga MX derby where the bookmakers see very little separating the two sides. Guadalajara are marginally the shorter price at 2.45 with Unibet, which works out to an implied probability of just over 40 percent, while América sit at 2.6, implying a shade under 38.5 percent. The draw, at 3.35, is priced around 29.9 percent, rounding out a market that is tightly bunched across all three outcomes. Despite Guadalajara carrying the slightly lower price, our model flags América as the pick of the match, judging the true winning chance for the home side to be higher than the 2.6 odds suggest, generating a value edge of 8.55 percent. This is not a case of an overwhelming favourite but a competitive fixture where a modest statistical edge has been identified in América's favour.
Verdict: América to win at 2.6 is the recommended angle, based on a model-derived edge of 8.55 percent against a tightly priced three-way market. This is a value-based lean rather than a strong favourite play, so it should be treated as moderate risk, sized and staked with discipline rather than assumed to be a safe outcome.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Liga MX fixtures
All Liga MX tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:00 | Cruz Azul v Toluca | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for América vs Guadalajara?+
Our tip was América to win at odds of 2.60.
Who is favourite in the América vs Guadalajara match?+
By raw odds, Guadalajara are marginally favoured at 2.45 compared to América's 2.6, implying probabilities of roughly 40.8 percent and 38.5 percent respectively. The gap is small, reflecting a closely matched fixture.
What is the draw priced at for this Liga MX fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.35 with Unibet, which implies a probability of just under 30 percent, making it a live but less likely outcome compared to either team winning.
Is there value in betting on this match?+
Our model identifies value on América to win at 2.6, citing a market-implied confidence of 42 percent and a value edge of 8.55 percent, meaning it rates América's true chances higher than the current price suggests. No other value picks were flagged in this data set.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).