Liga Profesional · Sat · 22:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Argentinos Juniors are priced at 1.65, implying roughly 61 percent win probability and marking them as clear favourites over CA Tigre BA.
The draw at 3.48 implies about a 29 percent chance, notably higher than Tigre's outright win probability.
CA Tigre BA's best price of 6.40 implies only around 16 percent, reflecting the market's view of them as underdogs in this Liga Profesional clash.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals pick at 1.52 carries a 62 percent implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -5.19 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a mispriced or high-value opportunity.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 18.7% | 5.34 |
| 0-0 | 17.3% | 5.80 |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.95 |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | 8.64 |
| 2-0 | 10.2% | 9.82 |
| 2-1 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.09 and 0.67. These six scorelines cover 77% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AJ | X | 2 · CTB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.02 | 4.54 |
| Betsson | 1.95 | 3.10 | 4.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.95 | 3.10 | 4.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.95 | 2.96 | 4.45 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.80 | 2.95 | 4.10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.78 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Argentinos Juniors host CA Tigre BA in the Liga Profesional, and the betting market leaves little doubt about who is expected to come out on top. At 1.65 for the hosts, the implied probability sits at roughly 61 percent, comfortably ahead of the draw at 3.48 (about 29 percent) and Tigre's outsider price of 6.40 (around 16 percent). Those numbers point to a clear home favourite with the away side seen as a long shot in this fixture. Away from the match-result market, our model highlights Over 1.5 goals at 1.52 as its recommended angle, built around a 62 percent confidence read even though the calculated value edge comes in slightly negative at -5.19 percent, meaning the price does not offer a clean statistical edge by our numbers.
Verdict: The market clearly favours Argentinos Juniors, but the flagged play here is Over 1.5 goals at 1.52. With a 62 percent confidence read yet a negative value edge, this looks like a moderate-risk, model-backed selection rather than a mispriced market opportunity, so bettors should size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.43, with a 39% confidence rating.
Argentinos Juniors are the clear market favourites at 1.65, which implies roughly a 61 percent win probability, well ahead of Tigre's 6.40 price.
The draw is available at 3.48, implying an approximate 29 percent probability according to the odds.
No standout value picks are flagged against the market consensus. The recommended bet, Over 1.5 goals at 1.52, actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -5.19 percent despite a 62 percent implied confidence.
Argentinos Juniors vs CA Tigre BA takes place Sat · 22:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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