English ⚽ Premier League 🕒 6 Sept 2026
Our tip
Arsenal to win
Odds
1.74
WonResult
2-1Final score
+0.74uProfit
61%Pre-match conf.
-2.25%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Arsenal are strong favourites at 1.72, implying about 58% win probability, with Chelsea a distant 5.4 (around 19%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.04, roughly a 25% implied chance, a fairly standard number for a match with a heavy favourite.
03
Our model rates Chelsea's fair probability at 21% versus their 5.4 price, producing the largest flagged value edge at 15.14%.
04
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.98 carries a slightly negative edge of -1.5%, making it a marginal lean rather than a value play.
Team form
ARS Arsenal LWWWW
19 Sept 26 @ Brighton Hove 0-3
12 Sept 26 @ Sunderland 2-0
6 Sept 26 vs Chelsea 2-1
31 Aug 26 @ Aston Villa 1-0
21 Aug 26 vs Coventry City 3-0
CHE Chelsea LDLWW
18 Sept 26 @ Brentford 0-3
12 Sept 26 vs Hull City 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Arsenal 1-2
30 Aug 26 vs Brighton Hove 4-3
24 Aug 26 @ Fulham 3-2
Head-to-head: Arsenal v Chelsea
Full H2H history → W 6 Sept 26
Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
W 1 Mar 26
Arsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
D 30 Nov 25
Chelsea 1-1 ArsenalPremier League
W/D/L shown from Arsenal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: pre-match preview
This Premier League meeting between Arsenal and Chelsea sees the home side installed as clear favourites, with a best price of 1.72 available at 1xBet. That equates to a market-implied probability of roughly 58%, underlining how strongly bookmakers lean towards Arsenal. Chelsea, by contrast, are a long shot at 5.4, implying about 19% before overround, while the draw sits at 4.04, or around 25%. The gap in prices reflects a match the market expects Arsenal to control. Our model, however, focuses elsewhere: the recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, priced close to a coin flip at 50% implied confidence. Notably, the value edge on that selection is slightly negative at -1.5%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The clearer statistical value flagged by our numbers actually appears in the outsider markets, which we cover in the key factors below.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, essentially a 50/50 call with a small negative edge, so treat it as a low-conviction lean. The market's clearer statistical value sits on Chelsea and the draw. Whichever angle you take, stake responsibly and keep outcomes uncertain.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.74 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
V 6 Sept 26
Under 3.0 goalsfinal score 2-1
1.71 0.00u Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Arsenal vs Chelsea?+
Our tip was Arsenal to win at odds of 1.74.
Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Chelsea?+
Arsenal are the favourites at a best price of 1.72, which implies roughly a 58% chance. Chelsea are the outsiders at 5.4, around 19%.
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is available at 4.04 with 1xBet, implying about a 25% probability. Our model assigns it a fair probability near 26%, giving a modest edge of 6.84%.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model flags the biggest value on Chelsea at 5.4, with an edge of 15.14% against a fair probability of 21%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.98, by contrast, shows a slightly negative edge of -1.5%.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 2-1 (+0.74u at flat stakes).