Champions League · Tue · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Arsenal's 1.26 price implies an approximate 79% win probability, reflecting a strong market-side favourite status for this Champions League tie.
Lille's 16.5 odds translate to roughly a 6% implied chance, underlining the scale of the gap between the two sides in the eyes of bookmakers.
The draw at 6.76 implies about 15% probability, a figure consistent with markets that expect a one-sided contest.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.67 carries a 59% implied confidence from the model but shows a slim negative value edge of -1.36%, meaning the price offers no clear statistical advantage over the model's own estimate.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ARS | X | 2 · LIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.67 | 11.40 |
| Coolbet | 1.28 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.31 | 5.40 | 11.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.30 | 5.45 | 11.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.29 | 5.80 | 10.00 |
| GTbets | 1.28 | 5.55 | 11.44 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Arsenal host Lille at the Emirates in a Champions League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Arsenal are priced at 1.26 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 79%, making them heavy favourites against a Lille side quoted at 16.5, or just over 6% implied chance. The draw sits at 6.76, implying about 15%, a price range typical when one side is dominant according to bookmakers. Rather than focusing on the match-result market, our model turns to the goals total, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.67. That price implies a bettor needs roughly a 60% strike rate to break even, and the model's own confidence sits close to that mark at 59%, suggesting the pick is reasonably aligned with market pricing rather than a clear mismatch.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.67 is a measured, goals-market alternative to backing a short-priced favourite. With confidence near the odds-implied breakeven and a marginally negative value edge, this is not a standout value bet but a reasonably balanced option; stake sizing should reflect that modest edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | 9.30 | 6.50 | 1.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 59% confidence rating.
Arsenal are strong favourites, priced at 1.26, which implies an approximate 79% chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 6.76, implying a probability of roughly 15%, typical for a fixture with such a lopsided favourite.
No standout value picks were flagged against the match-result market. The model's recommended bet, Under 3.5 goals at 1.67, carries a slight negative value edge of -1.36%, so it should be viewed as a balanced option rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Arsenal vs Lille takes place Tue · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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