Greek Super League · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Asteras Tripolis are the nominal favourites at 2.52, implying just under 40% win probability.
Atromitos Athens are priced at 2.91 (about 34% implied), keeping the gap between the two sides relatively narrow.
The draw at 3.15 (roughly 32% implied) reflects a fixture the market sees as closely contested rather than one-sided.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.30 carries a model confidence of 41% and a negative value edge of -4.95%, meaning the market price does not currently look favourable by the model's own measure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | 8.48 |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | 9.65 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.12 |
| 0-2 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 1.26. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AT | X | 2 · AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| Betsson | 2.40 | 3.15 | 2.88 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| 888sport | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.36 | 3.10 | 2.85 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Asteras Tripolis host Atromitos Athens in a Greek Super League clash where the bookmakers give a modest edge to the home side. Best prices have Asteras at 2.52, which works out to an implied probability of roughly 40%, while Atromitos at 2.91 implies about 34%. The draw, priced at 3.15, sits close behind at nearly 32%, underlining how tightly this one is rated by the market. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model points to the Over 2.5 goals line at 2.30 as the most notable angle, though it's worth noting the confidence attached to that selection is limited and the calculated value edge is actually negative. That combination suggests bettors should treat this fixture as competitive on paper, with no standout value pick emerging from either the win markets or the goals market according to the numbers we have.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.30 is offered as the model's lead suggestion, but its own figures show a negative value edge and only 41% confidence, so this is not a strong recommendation. Bettors considering it should treat it as speculative rather than a confident value angle, and size stakes with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30, with a 41% confidence rating.
Asteras Tripolis are the market favourites at 2.52, which implies just under a 40% chance of winning, compared to about 34% implied for Atromitos Athens.
The best available draw price is 3.15, implying a probability of roughly 32%, which is fairly close to both teams' win probabilities.
No selection above the site's value threshold was found; the model's highlighted Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.30 actually carries a negative value edge of -4.95%, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a clear value opportunity.
Asteras Tripolis vs Atromitos Athens takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Greek Super League.
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