English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 23 Aug 2026
Our tip
Sassuolo to win
Odds
6.20
LostResult
2-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
17%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Atalanta are strong favourites at 1.59, an implied probability near 63%, while Sassuolo's 6.24 sits around 16%.
02
The draw is priced at 4.45, roughly a 22% implied chance, reflecting a market that still allows for a low-event outcome.
03
The gap between the two sides' prices is wide, underlining the market's clear preference for the home team.
04
The recommended Under 2.75 goals at 1.97 carries a -4.07% value edge, meaning the model likes the angle but not the price.
Team form
AB Atalanta BC LLLWW
20 Sept 26 @ Juventus 0-2
12 Sept 26 vs Cagliari 1-2
5 Sept 26 @ Roma 1-2
31 Aug 26 vs Bologna 1-0
23 Aug 26 vs Sassuolo 2-1
SAS Sassuolo LWDWL
18 Sept 26 @ Monza 1-2
13 Sept 26 vs Juventus 3-2
6 Sept 26 @ Bologna 2-2
29 Aug 26 vs Torino 2-1
23 Aug 26 @ Atalanta 1-2
Head-to-head: Atalanta BC v Sassuolo
Full H2H history → W 23 Aug 26
Atalanta 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
L 1 Mar 26
Sassuolo 2-1 AtalantaSerie A
L 9 Nov 25
Atalanta 0-3 SassuoloSerie A
W/D/L shown from Atalanta BC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo: pre-match preview
Atalanta BC host Sassuolo in Serie A, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.59, Atalanta are priced as clear favourites, implying roughly a 63% chance of victory before any margin adjustment. Sassuolo sit at the other end at 6.24, translating to around a 16% implied probability, while the draw is offered at 4.45, or about 22%. That spread points to a home side the market expects to dictate, though upsets and stalemates remain firmly in play at those odds. Our model does not lean on the match result here; instead it looks at total goals, flagging Under 2.75 at 1.97 with roughly 49% implied confidence. That said, the calculation shows a negative value edge of about -4.07%, so this is a read on game shape rather than a spot where the price beats the market. Treat it accordingly and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.75 goals at 1.97, backed by around 49% model confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at about -4.07%, so this is a view on a contained scoreline rather than an odds-beating opportunity. Approach it as a modest, informed play, not a standout value bet.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 23 Aug 26
Over 2.75 goalsfinal score 2-1
1.89 +0.89u L 23 Aug 26
Under 2.5 goalsfinal score 2-1
2.25 -1.00u L 23 Aug 26
Under 2.75 goalsfinal score 2-1
2.00 -1.00u V 22 Aug 26
Under 2.5 goalsVoid — fixture rescheduled and re-listed
2.12 0.00u Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo?+
Our tip was Sassuolo to win at odds of 6.20.
Who is the favourite for Atalanta BC vs Sassuolo?+
Atalanta BC are the market favourites at a best price of 1.59, implying roughly a 63% chance. Sassuolo are outsiders at 6.24, around 16% implied.
What are the odds on a draw?+
The draw is available at 4.45, which equates to an implied probability of about 22%.
Is there any value in this match?+
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Under 2.75 goals at 1.97 actually shows a negative edge of around -4.07%, so it reflects game shape rather than a market-beating price.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).