Serie A · Mon · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Atalanta are priced at 1.77, implying just over 56% win probability, making them clear favourites over Venezia.
Venezia's 5.14 price implies roughly 19.5% win probability, the outsider's chance according to the market.
The draw at 4.20 implies about 23.8%, a live secondary outcome given the size of the favourite-underdog gap.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.35 carries a -5.88% value edge, meaning the model's estimated probability (40%) is actually lower than what the odds imply (42.6%), so it is not a clean value play by the site's own metric.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezia to win | 5.50 | +6.2% | 19% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AB | X | 2 · VEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.96 | 5.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68 | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 5.25 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 3.79 | 5.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atalanta BC host Venezia in Serie A with the odds pointing to a clear home advantage. At 1.77 for an Atalanta win, the market implies a probability of roughly 56.5%, while Venezia's 5.14 price suggests only about 19.5% chance of an away win. The draw, priced at 4.20, sits at an implied 23.8%, meaning the bookmakers see this as a lopsided contest rather than a tight tactical battle. Away from the match-result market, the highlighted angle here is a goals market bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.35, which corresponds to an implied probability near 42.6%. Interestingly, the model's own confidence in this outcome is put at 40%, slightly below what the price implies, producing a negative value edge of almost 6%. That combination is worth understanding before staking anything on this Atalanta vs Venezia fixture.
Verdict: The highlighted Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.35 is offered despite a negative value edge, meaning the market price is arguably slightly ahead of the model's own probability estimate. This is not a strong-conviction pick; bettors considering it should treat it as speculative and size stakes conservatively.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 40% confidence rating.
Atalanta are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.77, implying a win probability of around 56.5 percent, compared with Venezia's 5.14 (about 19.5 percent).
The draw is priced at 4.20 with the best odds from Unibet (SE), which implies roughly a 23.8 percent chance according to the market.
The only highlighted angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.35, but it actually carries a negative value edge of about -5.88 percent, meaning the market price is not favourable relative to the model's own 40 percent confidence estimate. No match-result value picks met the site's threshold for this game.
Atalanta BC vs Venezia takes place Mon · 16:30 in the Serie A.
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