Brasileirão · Thu · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Atletico Paranaense are priced at 2.02 (about 49.5% implied probability), making them the clear market favourites over Atletico Mineiro at 3.92 (about 25.5%).
The draw is priced at 3.42, implying roughly 29% probability, keeping it a live outcome despite the home lean.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% (around 104%), reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than any single overwhelmingly certain result.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.15 carries a -3.83% value edge, meaning the model's 45% confidence is slightly below the 46.5% implied by the price, so it is not a clear-cut value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 8.17 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.54 |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | 9.99 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.44 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
| 0-1 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.64 and 0.96. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AP | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.94 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.96 | 3.30 | 3.82 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atletico Paranaense host Atletico Mineiro in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market gives a clear lean toward the home side. Best prices show Paranaense at 2.02, which implies roughly a 49-50% chance of victory, comfortably ahead of Mineiro's 3.92 (about 25.5% implied) and the draw at 3.42 (around 29%). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a home-favoured contest rather than a coin-flip. Away from the result market, our model points toward the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 as the recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 46.5%, while the model's own confidence sits at 45%, producing a modest negative value edge of -3.83%. In short, the head-to-head odds favour Paranaense at home, and the more interesting angle for bettors may lie in how open the match plays out rather than simply picking a winner.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.15 reflects moderate model confidence (45%) but a slightly negative value edge, so it should be treated as a reasonable rather than compelling angle. With Paranaense favoured in the result market but no standout value picks flagged, disciplined staking and realistic expectations are advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15, with a 45% confidence rating.
Atletico Paranaense are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.02 which implies close to a 49-50% chance of winning, compared with Atletico Mineiro's 3.92 (about 25.5%).
The draw is available at 3.42, which implies a probability of roughly 29%, making it a plausible but secondary outcome behind a home win.
No result-market value picks cleared the threshold. The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.15, though this carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.83%, so it should not be viewed as a strong value opportunity.
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Mineiro takes place Thu · 23:00 in the Brasileirão.
English 
