Brasileirão · Today · 22:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Atletico Paranaense are priced as clear favourites at 2.07, implying roughly 48% win probability compared with Bahia's 27% at 3.75
The draw at 3.5 sits between the two win prices, implying about 29%, keeping the match-result market fairly competitive despite the home favouritism
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.78 carries an implied probability of about 56%, but the model's stated confidence is only 54%
The value edge on the Under 2.5 selection is negative at -4.08%, meaning the odds do not currently offer a clear statistical advantage over the model's own estimate
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.77 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.41 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.64 |
| 0-1 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.68 and 1.12. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AP | X | 2 · BAH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.34 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Matchbook | 2.36 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.40 | 3.33 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.31 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| BetAnything | 2.31 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.37 | 3.28 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atletico Paranaense host Bahia in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.07 on Atletico Paranaense imply a win probability of roughly 48%, notably ahead of the draw at 3.5 (about 29%) and Bahia at 3.75 (around 27%). That gap suggests bookmakers see home advantage as the dominant factor here, though nothing in the pricing indicates a one-sided contest. Away from the match-result market, our model's featured angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, translating to an implied probability near 56%, though the model's own confidence sits at 54% with a value edge of -4.08 percent. In practice that means the recommendation is close to fair value rather than a clear market mispricing, so this is one for measured consideration rather than confident staking.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.78 is the standout data point here, but with a negative value edge of -4.08% it is closer to fair value than a strong opportunity. Bettors considering it should treat this as a moderate-risk pick rather than one backed by a clear market edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
| 7 Oct 23:30 | Botafogo v Vasco da Gama | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 50% confidence rating.
Atletico Paranaense are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.07 which implies a win probability of about 48%, compared with Bahia's 27% at 3.75.
The draw is available at 3.5, which implies a probability of roughly 29%, sitting between the two teams' win prices.
The main data-backed angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, but it carries a negative value edge of -4.08% and only 54% model confidence, so it should not be seen as a strong value bet.
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia takes place Today · 22:30 in the Brasileirão.
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