English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 30 Aug 2026
Our tip
Atletico Paranaense to win
Odds
2.35
LostResult
3-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
44%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Coolbet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Atletico Paranaense are favourites at 2.35 (around 43% implied), ahead of Fluminense at 3.33 (around 30%).
02
The draw is competitively priced at 3.20, implying roughly 31% and reflecting a fairly balanced market.
03
Our recommended bet is Atletico Paranaense to win, carrying a value edge of about 3.95% at 44% model confidence.
04
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, so the edge here is slim rather than strong.
Team form
AP Atletico Paranaense DLDWD
12 Sept 26 @ Coritiba 3-3
6 Sept 26 @ Cruzeiro 1-3
30 Aug 26 vs Fluminense 3-3
24 Aug 26 @ Botafogo 3-2
15 Aug 26 vs Bragantino 1-1
FLU Fluminense LWDWW
12 Sept 26 @ Mineiro 1-3
6 Sept 26 vs Vasco da Gama 1-0
30 Aug 26 @ Paranaense 3-3
22 Aug 26 vs Clube do Remo 2-1
15 Aug 26 vs Palmeiras 3-2
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense
Full H2H history → D 30 Aug 26
Paranaense 3-3 FluminenseBrasileirão
L 15 Mar 26
Fluminense 3-2 ParanaenseBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense: pre-match preview
This Brasileirão clash sees Atletico Paranaense host Fluminense, and the market has a clear preference. Atletico Paranaense are priced at 2.35 with Coolbet, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 43%, marking them as the favourites here. Fluminense are the outsiders at 3.33 with 1xBet, or about 30% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 3.20 with Coolbet, implying close to 31%. Those numbers point to a genuinely open contest rather than a one-sided affair, with the gap between home win and away win narrower than a heavy favourite would produce. Our model leans towards Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.35, flagging a value edge of around 3.95% at a market-implied confidence of 44%. That is a modest edge rather than a standout signal, so it fits as a lean on the favourite rather than a conviction play in this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.35. As home favourites with a small value edge near 4%, they are the model's lean, but the tight prices and 43% implied probability mean this is a moderate-risk pick with a real chance of a draw or away result.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
W 30 Aug 26
Over 2.0 goalsfinal score 3-3
1.78 +0.78u Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?+
Our tip was Atletico Paranaense to win at odds of 2.35.
Who is the favourite for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?+
Atletico Paranaense are the favourites at 2.35 with Coolbet, implying about a 43% chance. Fluminense are the outsiders at 3.33, around 30%.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 3.20 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 31% probability, close to the away-win price.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model identifies a modest value edge of about 3.95% on Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.35. No selections cleared the higher value threshold against market consensus, so the edge is slim.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).