Greek Super League · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
AEK Athens are priced at 1.39, implying roughly a 72 percent chance of victory according to the market.
Atromitos Athens at 8.55 are given only about 12 percent, reflecting a significant gap between the two sides in the odds.
The draw at 4.5 carries an implied probability near 22 percent, but the model's fair probability estimate of 24 percent produces a positive edge of 6.37 percent.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 shows a modelled confidence of 53 percent against an implied 56 percent, translating to a small negative edge of -5.26 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.6% | 7.37 |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.97 |
| 0-2 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 11.40 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.93 and 1.43. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.45 | +5.2% | 24% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AA | X | 2 · AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.25 | 4.45 | 1.38 |
| Betsson | 7.90 | 4.45 | 1.37 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.80 | 4.45 | 1.37 |
| 888sport | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.36 |
| William Hill | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.36 |
| Codere (IT) | 7.60 | 4.40 | 1.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AEK Athens head to face Atromitos Athens in the Greek Super League as clear market favourites, with the best price of 1.39 implying a win probability of roughly 72 percent. Atromitos, priced at 8.55, are given only around 12 percent by the same market, while the draw sits at 4.5, implying about 22 percent. Together these prices carry a standard bookmaker margin, but the gap between favourite and underdog is wide enough to suggest a lopsided contest on paper. Away from the straight result market, the site's model points toward the Over 2.5 goals line at 1.8, a bet with an implied probability near 56 percent against a modelled confidence of 53 percent. Elsewhere, the draw stands out as the more interesting value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 24 percent comfortably above what the 4.5 price implies.
Verdict: The market strongly favours AEK Athens, but the standout data point is the draw's positive edge versus fair value. The recommended Over 2.5 goals selection carries a slight negative edge despite reasonable model confidence, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk pick rather than a high-conviction one. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80, with a 53% confidence rating.
AEK Athens are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.39, which implies a win probability of around 72 percent.
The best available price for the draw is 4.5, implying roughly a 22 percent chance, though the model's fair probability estimate is somewhat higher at 24 percent.
The data suggests the draw offers positive value with a 6.37 percent edge over the market price, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 shows a small negative edge of -5.26 percent, making it a moderate rather than standout option.
Atromitos Athens vs AEK Athens takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Greek Super League.
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