English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.83
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
57%Pre-match conf.
-4.19%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Leverkusen's 1.71 price implies close to a 58.5 percent win probability, marking them heavy favourites on paper.
02
Augsburg's 5.0 price implies about 20 percent, while the model's fair probability of 21 percent points to a modest 5.34 percent value edge on the home side.
03
The draw at 4.51 implies roughly 22 percent, keeping it competitive with Augsburg's own win chance according to the odds.
04
The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.83 carries a 57 percent implied confidence and a 3.42 percent edge, the strongest data-backed angle in this preview.
Team form
AUG Augsburg LDWWL
19 Sept 26 @ Bremen 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Leverkusen 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Frankfurt 4-1
30 Aug 26 vs Schalke 3-0
16 May 26 @ Union Berlin 0-4
BL Bayer Leverkusen WDWLD
20 Sept 26 vs RB Leipzig 2-0
12 Sept 26 @ Augsburg 2-2
5 Sept 26 vs Union Berlin 4-0
29 Aug 26 @ Elversberg 2-3
16 May 26 vs HSV 1-1
Head-to-head: Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Full H2H history → D 12 Sept 26
Augsburg 2-2 LeverkusenBundesliga
W 18 Apr 26
Leverkusen 1-2 AugsburgBundesliga
W 6 Dec 25
Augsburg 2-0 LeverkusenBundesliga
W/D/L shown from Augsburg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: pre-match preview
Bayer Leverkusen head to Augsburg as clear favourites in this Bundesliga fixture, with the best available price of 1.71 implying a win probability of roughly 58.5 percent. Augsburg, priced at 5.0, are rated around 20 percent to cause an upset, while the draw at 4.51 sits close to 22 percent. Those numbers point to a match where the market expects Leverkusen control but leaves some room for the hosts, reflected in a modelled fair probability of 21 percent for Augsburg against the market's 20 percent price. Away from the result market, the recommended angle here is goals: Under 3.5 is priced at 1.83, with the model assigning a 57 percent confidence level and a 3.42 percent edge, suggesting the total-goals line may offer more value than backing either side outright.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals pick at 1.83 is the most data-supported option, backed by a 57 percent confidence level and a modest edge over the market price. It is not a high-certainty bet, but it aligns better with the numbers than backing either side to win outright. Stake sizes should reflect this moderate confidence.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.83.
Who is favourite in the Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen match?+
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites, with their best price of 1.71 implying roughly a 58.5 percent win probability, compared to about 20 percent for Augsburg.
What is the draw priced at for this Bundesliga fixture?+
The draw is available at 4.51, which implies a probability of around 22 percent, only slightly higher than Augsburg's own implied chance.
Is there value in backing Augsburg to win?+
The data shows a small value edge on Augsburg, with a fair probability estimate of 21 percent against a market-implied 20 percent at odds of 5.0, though this remains a low-probability outcome overall.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).