Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Augsburg are favourites at 2.26 (about 44% implied), with Schalke the outsiders at 3.4 (roughly 29%).
The draw at 4.0 implies around 25%, making it the least backed outcome of the three.
The recommended Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.94 sits near a 49% market-implied probability, close to a coin flip.
The value edge on that Over line is negative at -4.52%, so the model does not flag it as a priced-in advantage.
Team form
Head-to-head: Augsburg v FC Schalke 04
W/D/L shown from Augsburg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04: pre-match preview
This Bundesliga clash sees Augsburg host FC Schalke 04, and the market leans clearly toward the home side. At a best price of 2.26, Augsburg carry an implied probability of roughly 44%, comfortably ahead of Schalke's 3.4 (around 29%). The draw is priced at 4.0, or about 25% implied, suggesting the market sees a stalemate as the least likely of the three outcomes. Rather than the match result, our model focuses on the goals market, recommending Over 3.0 goals at 1.94 with Pinnacle, a line the market prices at close to 49%. That said, the calculated value edge here is negative at -4.52%, meaning the price does not currently offer an advantage over the model's estimate. In other words, this is a lean rather than a strong value play in an Augsburg versus Schalke fixture that the market reads as competitive but tilted toward the hosts.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 3.0 goals at 1.94, a near coin-flip proposition with a market-implied confidence around 49%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.52%, so this carries real risk and no pricing advantage. Treat it as a modest lean and stake within your usual limits.
How it settled: the tip was voided — the match finished 3-0, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.94.
Augsburg are the favourites at a best price of 2.26, which implies roughly a 44% chance. Schalke sit at 3.4, around 29% implied.
The draw is available at 4.0, equating to about a 25% implied probability. That makes it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes according to the market.
Our model's recommended pick, Over 3.0 goals at 1.94, shows a negative value edge of -4.52%, so no clear value is flagged. No other picks cleared the value threshold for this fixture.
The tip was voided — final score 3-0 (0.00u at flat stakes).