Austrian Bundesliga · Sat · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Sturm Graz are priced at 2.05, the shortest of the three outcomes, implying close to a 49 percent win probability against Austria Wien.
Austria Wien's best price of 3.4 implies roughly 29 percent, making them clear underdogs on the market's assessment.
The draw at 3.62 (about 28 percent implied) is priced close to Austria Wien's own win chance, reflecting a competitive but Sturm-leaning market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.67 carries a negative value edge of -6.39 percent, meaning the model's confidence of 56 percent trails the price's implied probability of about 60 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.50 |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | 10.20 |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 0-2 | 7.7% | 12.92 |
| 1-0 | 7.4% | 13.42 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.16 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.20 and 1.58. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AW | X | 2 · SG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.30 | 3.62 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| 888sport | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| Suprabets | 3.21 | 3.38 | 1.92 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.20 | 3.55 | 1.84 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sturm Graz go into this Austrian Bundesliga meeting with Austria Wien as the clear market favourites, with the best price of 2.05 implying a win probability of just under 49 percent. Austria Wien are priced at 3.4, translating to roughly 29 percent, while the draw sits at 3.62, or about 28 percent, showing bookmakers see this as a fairly open contest despite Sturm's edge. Rather than picking a side in the match result market, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.67. That price implies around 60 percent probability, though the model's own confidence sits at 56 percent, which is worth keeping in mind when sizing any stake on this fixture.
Verdict: Sturm Graz are the market's clear pick to win, but the standout angle here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.67. With a negative value edge and model confidence below the price's implied probability, this leans more toward a plausible outcome than a discernible market inefficiency, so moderate stake sizing is advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 15:00 | WSG Tirol v Ried | 2.60 | 3.42 | 2.53 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| 11 Oct 12:30 | Hartberg v Austria Lustenau | 2.33 | 3.40 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 15:00 | LASK v Rapid Wien | 1.80 | 3.84 | 3.94 |
| 16 Oct 17:30 | Rapid Wien v Hartberg | 1.29 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| 17 Oct 15:00 | Austria Lustenau v LASK | 8.05 | 5.30 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 17:30 | Ried v Austria Wien | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.85 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Wolfsberger AC v WSG Tirol | 2.34 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 56% confidence rating.
Sturm Graz are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.05 compared to 3.4 for Austria Wien, implying a win probability of roughly 49 percent versus 29 percent.
The draw is available at 3.62, which implies an approximate 28 percent chance, sitting close to Austria Wien's own implied win probability.
The model does not flag any match-result value picks above threshold. Its main recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.67, though this carries a negative value edge of -6.39 percent, indicating limited edge over the market price.
Austria Wien vs Sturm Graz takes place Sat · 17:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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