English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 20 Sept 2026
Our tip
Auxerre to win
Odds
2.80
WonResult
2-1Final score
+1.80uProfit
38%Pre-match conf.
-4.76%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Match-result prices are closely bunched: Auxerre 2.8, Brest 2.85, draw 3.48, indicating the market sees this as a near-even contest.
02
Implied probabilities sit at approximately 35.7 percent for Auxerre, 35.1 percent for Brest, and 28.7 percent for the draw.
03
The model's confidence in Auxerre (38 percent) exceeds the market-implied probability (35.7 percent), generating a 6.44 percent value edge on the home side.
04
No value picks versus market consensus cleared the threshold elsewhere, meaning Auxerre to win stands as the only flagged opportunity from this dataset.
05
The draw's 28.7 percent implied probability suggests the market does not consider a stalemate unlikely, keeping outright selections inherently uncertain.
Team form
AUX Auxerre WWLLL
20 Sept 26 vs Brest 2-1
12 Sept 26 vs Nice 1-0
4 Sept 26 @ Olympique Lyon 1-3
29 Aug 26 vs Angers SCO 1-3
22 Aug 26 @ RC Lens 2-5
BRE Brest LLWDD
20 Sept 26 @ Auxerre 1-2
13 Sept 26 vs PSG 0-1
5 Sept 26 @ Le Havre 2-1
29 Aug 26 vs Toulouse 2-2
22 Aug 26 @ Le Mans 2-2
Head-to-head: Auxerre v Brest
Full H2H history → W 20 Sept 26
Auxerre 2-1 BrestLigue 1
W 21 Mar 26
Auxerre 3-0 BrestLigue 1
L 4 Jan 26
Brest 2-0 AuxerreLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Auxerre's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Auxerre vs Brest: pre-match preview
Ligue 1 sees Auxerre host Brest in a fixture where the betting market is remarkably tight, offering little separation between the two sides. Best available prices put Auxerre at 2.8 with Betfair, Brest slightly higher at 2.85 with 1xBet, and the draw at 3.48 with 1xBet. Converting these to implied probability, Auxerre sits at roughly 35.7 percent, Brest close behind at about 35.1 percent, and the draw around 28.7 percent, meaning no side is a clear favourite by market consensus. Our model flags Auxerre to win at 2.8 as its recommended selection, citing a 38 percent confidence level against the market's 35.7 percent implied figure, producing a calculated value edge of 6.44 percent. No other selections in this match clear the value threshold, so this remains the standout angle for bettors weighing up the fixture.
Verdict: Auxerre to win at 2.8 is the recommended angle, backed by a modest 6.44 percent value edge over the market's own pricing. With implied probabilities for all three outcomes bunched closely together, this remains a moderate-risk selection rather than a heavily favoured one, and stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.80 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Auxerre vs Brest?+
Our tip was Auxerre to win at odds of 2.80.
Who is favourite in the Auxerre vs Brest match?+
Neither side is a strong favourite according to the odds. Auxerre is priced at 2.8 (implied probability about 35.7 percent) and Brest at 2.85 (about 35.1 percent), making this a very tightly matched fixture by market consensus.
What is the draw priced at for Auxerre vs Brest?+
The draw is available at 3.48 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 28.7 percent, a meaningful chance the market is pricing in for this Ligue 1 fixture.
Is there value in betting on this match?+
Our model identifies value on Auxerre to win at 2.8, with a calculated edge of 6.44 percent versus the market-implied probability. No other selections in this fixture cleared the value threshold based on the data provided.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 2-1 (+1.80u at flat stakes).