English ⚽ Ligue 1 🕒 12 Sept 2026
Our tip
Auxerre to win
Odds
2.60
WonResult
1-0Final score
+1.60uProfit
43%Pre-match conf.
-14.75%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Auxerre are the shortest price at 2.6, making them the market's favourite over Nice (3.04) and the draw (3.35).
02
The 2.6 price on Auxerre implies roughly a 38 percent chance, below the model's 43 percent confidence figure for the same outcome.
03
The recommended bet, Auxerre to win, carries an 11.74 percent value edge based on the gap between model confidence and market-implied probability.
04
The draw at 3.35 is priced as the least probable of the three outcomes, and no value picks against the wider market consensus met the threshold for this match.
Team form
AUX Auxerre WWLLL
20 Sept 26 vs Brest 2-1
12 Sept 26 vs Nice 1-0
4 Sept 26 @ Olympique Lyon 1-3
29 Aug 26 vs Angers SCO 1-3
22 Aug 26 @ RC Lens 2-5
NIC Nice WLDLD
20 Sept 26 vs Lille 2-1
12 Sept 26 @ Auxerre 0-1
5 Sept 26 vs Le Mans 1-1
30 Aug 26 @ Paris FC 0-3
22 Aug 26 vs Lorient 0-0
Head-to-head: Auxerre v Nice
Full H2H history → W 12 Sept 26
Auxerre 1-0 NiceLigue 1
W 10 May 26
Auxerre 2-1 NiceLigue 1
L 23 Aug 25
Nice 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Auxerre's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Auxerre vs Nice: pre-match preview
Ligue 1 action brings Auxerre and Nice together, with the betting market leaning toward the hosts as the shorter price in this contest. Auxerre are quoted at 2.6 with Unibet (SE), Nice sit at 3.04 with 1xBet, and the draw is priced at 3.35 with 1xBet. Converting the headline Auxerre price into probability terms puts their implied chance at roughly 38 percent, yet our model assigns a higher confidence of 43 percent to that outcome, which is what generates the recommended bet on Auxerre to win at 2.6. That gap between the model's read and the raw market price is the basis for an 11.74 percent value edge on the home side. Nice's price implies a lower standalone probability, and the draw, at 3.35, is priced as the least likely of the three outcomes according to the market. No other selections in this fixture cleared the value threshold used for this preview.
Verdict: Auxerre to win at 2.6 is the standout selection here, backed by an 11.74 percent value edge and 43 percent model confidence versus a lower market-implied probability. It is not a heavily favoured outcome in absolute terms, so this remains a moderate-risk pick suited to measured stakes rather than a strong-conviction wager.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-0, for a flat-stake return of +1.60 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 12 Sept 26
Over 1.5 goalsfinal score 1-0
2.20 -1.00u Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Auxerre vs Nice?+
Our tip was Auxerre to win at odds of 2.60.
Who is favourite in the Auxerre vs Nice match?+
Auxerre are the market favourite, priced at 2.6 compared with 3.04 for Nice and 3.35 for the draw.
What is the draw priced at for Auxerre vs Nice?+
The draw is priced at 3.35 with 1xBet, making it the least likely outcome according to the market prices listed.
Is there value in betting on this Ligue 1 fixture?+
Yes, the model flags Auxerre to win at 2.6 as carrying an 11.74 percent value edge, since its 43 percent model confidence exceeds the roughly 38 percent implied by the market price; no other selections met the value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-0 (+1.60u at flat stakes).