Liga Profesional · Tue · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Rosario Central are priced at 2.02, implying roughly a 49.5 percent chance of victory, making them the strong favourite over Banfield in this Liga Profesional fixture.
Banfield's 4.0 price implies only about a 25 percent win probability, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
The draw at 3.26 carries an implied probability of roughly 30.7 percent, sitting between the two team prices as is common in games with a clear favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.37 carries a model-implied confidence of 40 percent against a value edge of -5.2 percent, meaning the model itself flags this as a negative-edge selection rather than a clear-value one.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | 7.59 |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | 9.35 |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | 9.47 |
| 0-2 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | 12.17 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.99 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAN | X | 2 · RC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 3.19 | 2.03 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.95 | 3.12 | 1.99 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.88 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.60 | 2.95 | 1.84 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.65 | 2.85 | 1.81 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.65 | 2.85 | 1.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Rosario Central head into this Liga Profesional clash against Banfield as the clear market favourite, with the best price on offer at 2.02 implying a win probability of roughly 49.5 percent. Banfield, priced at 4.0, are seen as considerably weaker on paper, with an implied chance of around 25 percent, while the draw at 3.26 sits at about 30.7 percent implied probability. Combined, these prices carry a standard bookmaker margin of a little over 5 percent, which is typical for this type of match. Away from the result market, the site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.37 as its recommended angle, though the numbers behind it are worth reading carefully before backing it, since the model's own confidence reading and the quoted value edge diverge slightly.
Verdict: The market leans firmly toward Rosario Central, but the site's highlighted angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.37. With a stated value edge of -5.2 percent, this pick does not show positive expected value by the model's own numbers, so it should be treated as a higher-risk, speculative option rather than a confident recommendation. Stake accordingly and manage bankroll with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 41% confidence rating.
Rosario Central are the clear market favourite, priced at 2.02, which implies roughly a 49.5 percent chance of winning, compared to Banfield's 4.0 price and about 25 percent implied probability.
The draw is available at 3.26, which implies an outcome probability of approximately 30.7 percent based on the odds given.
The listed value picks section shows no selections above the site's value threshold, and the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.37 actually carries a negative value edge of -5.2 percent, so no strong value angle is indicated by the current data.
Banfield vs Rosario Central takes place Tue · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
English