Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Bayern Munich's 1.32 price implies roughly a 76% chance of victory, marking them as strong favourites.
VfB Stuttgart at 9.5 carries an implied probability near 11%, underlining their status as sizeable underdogs.
The draw at 7.0 sits at around 14% implied, wider than the away win but still a secondary outcome.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.7 shows a negative value edge of -1.71%, meaning no clear advantage over the market price.
Team form
Head-to-head: Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Bayern Munich's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart: pre-match preview
This Bundesliga clash sees Bayern Munich open as heavy favourites at home to VfB Stuttgart, with the best available price of 1.32 signalling clear market confidence in the hosts. That figure translates to an implied probability of roughly 76%, leaving Stuttgart a distant outsider at 9.5 (around 11%) and the draw priced at 7.0 (near 14%). The gap between the two sides is substantial, and the market plainly expects Bayern to control proceedings. Rather than backing the lopsided match result, our model looks at the goals market for Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 1.7. That reflects a market-implied confidence of about 58% that the game features an open, high-scoring pattern. It is worth noting the value edge on this selection sits at -1.71%, so the price offers no clear overlay against the market consensus here.
Verdict: The pick is Over 3.5 goals at 1.7, backing an open, high-scoring game rather than the one-sided result. With about 58% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge, this is a moderate-risk selection with no pricing advantage. Stake responsibly and only within your budget.
How it settled: the tip was voided, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was VfB Stuttgart to win at odds of 9.50.
The tip was voided (0.00u at flat stakes).