English ⚽ Championship 🕒 22 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.01
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
51%Pre-match conf.
-1.47%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Birmingham City are firm favourites at 1.85, an implied probability near 54%, well ahead of Bristol City's roughly 23% at 4.3.
02
The draw is priced at 3.75, implying about a 27% chance and sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
03
Our model rates Bristol City's 4.3 as value, with a fair probability of 25% and a positive edge of 5.76%.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.8 shows a negative value edge of -5.26%, meaning the price offers no market advantage despite 53% model confidence.
Team form
BC Birmingham City DWLDD
19 Sept 26 vs Middlesbrough 2-2
12 Sept 26 @ Derby County 2-1
9 Sept 26 @ Norwich 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Wolverhampton 2-2
1 Sept 26 vs Southampton 1-1
BC Bristol City WLLWW
18 Sept 26 vs Watford 1-0
15 Sept 26 vs Lincoln City 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Southampton 1-4
5 Sept 26 @ Burnley 2-1
1 Sept 26 @ Preston NE 3-1
Head-to-head: Birmingham City v Bristol City
Full H2H history → D 22 Aug 26
Birmingham 2-2 Bristol CityChampionship
W 25 Apr 26
Birmingham 2-1 Bristol CityChampionship
L 25 Oct 25
Bristol City 1-0 BirminghamChampionship
W/D/L shown from Birmingham City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Birmingham City vs Bristol City: pre-match preview
Birmingham City host Bristol City in this Championship encounter, and the market leaves little doubt about which way it leans. Birmingham are priced at 1.85, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as clear favourites on home soil. Bristol City are the outsiders at a best price of 4.3, or about 23% implied, while the draw sits at 3.75, close to a 27% chance. That is a meaningful gap between the two sides in the eyes of the bookmakers. Our model's recommended bet here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.8, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 53%, though it registers a negative value edge of -5.26% against the price on offer. Separately, our value model flags Bristol City at 4.3 as slightly underpriced, assigning them a fair probability of 25% for an edge of 5.76%. That combination is worth weighing before committing a stake.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.8, backed by around 53% model confidence, but note its negative value edge of -5.26% against this price. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong-value one, and stake within your usual limits.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Birmingham City vs Bristol City?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.01.
Who is the favourite for Birmingham City vs Bristol City?+
Birmingham City are the market favourites at a best price of 1.85, implying roughly a 54% chance. Bristol City are the outsiders at 4.3, around 23% implied.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is available at a best price of 3.75, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 27%.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our value model flags Bristol City at 4.3 as slightly underpriced, assigning a fair probability of 25% for an edge of 5.76%. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet, by contrast, shows a negative edge of -5.26%.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).