Liga Profesional · Sun · 22:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Boca Juniors are priced at 1.66, implying roughly 60% win probability, making them the clear market favourite over Union Santa Fe.
Union Santa Fe's 5.9 price implies only around 17% probability, reflecting a significant gap between the two sides.
The draw at 3.56 implies close to 28%, a notable chunk of the market's overall probability distribution.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick carries a 57% implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -4.88%, meaning the model does not see it as a clear-cut value bet against the price offered.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 7.52 |
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.64 |
| 2-0 | 10.9% | 9.13 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.50 |
| 0-0 | 8.1% | 12.38 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.22 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 0.87. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BJ | X | 2 · USF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.55 | 6.12 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.61 | 3.48 | 6.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.52 | 3.45 | 5.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.50 | 3.40 | 5.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Boca Juniors host Union Santa Fe in Liga Profesional with the home side installed as a clear market favourite. The best price on Boca is 1.66, which implies a win probability of roughly 60%, while Union Santa Fe drift out to 5.9, pricing them at around 17%. The draw sits at 3.56, implying about 28%. Those numbers point to a fixture where the market expects Boca to control proceedings but leaves a reasonable chance the game stays tight or low scoring. Away from the match-result market, the site's model flags Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 as its recommended angle, built around a 57% confidence read rather than the outright winner markets, giving bettors an alternative way to engage with a fixture where the draw and away price both carry some weight.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals selection at 1.67 reflects a moderate model confidence of 57%, but its negative value edge of -4.88% means it is not flagged as a strong value play. Treat it as a measured, low-conviction option rather than a standout pick, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 17:30 | Aldosivi Mar del Plata v Atlético Tucuman | 3.35 | 2.98 | 2.58 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.21, with a 43% confidence rating.
Boca Juniors are the clear favourite, priced at 1.66, which implies roughly a 60% win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 3.56, implying an approximate 28% probability, which is a meaningful share of the overall market.
No standout value picks against market consensus were identified. The model's recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.67, though it carries a negative value edge of -4.88%, so it is not presented as a high-confidence value opportunity.
Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe takes place Sun · 22:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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