English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 16 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.23
LostResult
3-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
47%Pre-match conf.
+0.45%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (NL)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Botafogo's 1.85 price implies about a 54% win probability, making them the clear market favourite over Grêmio.
02
Grêmio at 4.62 implies roughly 22% winning probability, reflecting a considerable gap to the hosts.
03
The draw at 3.54 implies close to 28%, keeping it as a realistic alternative rather than an outlier price.
04
The Under 2.5 goals pick at 1.76 carries a model confidence of 55% but a negative value edge of -4.04%, meaning the market price is not generously beating the model's own estimate of fair value.
Team form
BOT Botafogo LWDDL
19 Sept 26 @ Mirassol 0-2
16 Sept 26 vs Grêmio 3-2
12 Sept 26 vs Bragantino 1-1
6 Sept 26 vs Palmeiras 0-0
30 Aug 26 @ Flamengo 0-3
GRÊ Grêmio DLLLW
20 Sept 26 vs Palmeiras 0-0
16 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Vasco da Gama 1-2
7 Sept 26 @ Vitória 0-1
30 Aug 26 vs Chapecoense 3-1
Head-to-head: Botafogo v Grêmio
Full H2H history → W 16 Sept 26
Botafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrasileirão
L 5 Feb 26
Grêmio 5-3 BotafogoBrasileirão
W 22 Nov 25
Botafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrasileirão
D 24 Sept 25
Grêmio 1-1 BotafogoBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Botafogo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Botafogo vs Grêmio: pre-match preview
Botafogo host Grêmio in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Odds of 1.85 for Botafogo imply a win probability of roughly 54%, compared with about 22% for a Grêmio victory at 4.62 and around 28% for the draw at 3.54. That gap points to a moderate but not overwhelming home favourite, with the draw priced as a live alternative rather than a long shot. Away from the match-result market, the standout note from our model is a recommendation on Under 2.5 goals at 1.76, suggesting the model sees this as a game more likely to stay tight than open up into a high-scoring affair. No side markets currently clear our value threshold against market consensus, so the goals total is the focal point of this preview for bettors weighing their options in the Brasileirão.
Verdict: The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 reflects a moderate lean toward a lower-scoring match rather than a strong statistical edge, given the negative value gap. It is a reasonable consideration for bettors who favour goals markets, but stakes should stay measured given the modest confidence level involved.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 3-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
V 29 Jul 26
Grêmio to winBrasileirão
5.19 0.00u V 29 Jul 26
Over 2.5 goalsBrasileirão
2.02 0.00u V 29 Jul 26
Under 2.5 goalsBrasileirão
1.96 0.00u Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Botafogo vs Grêmio?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23.
Who is the betting favourite for Botafogo vs Grêmio?+
Botafogo are the clear favourites at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of victory according to the market, compared with about 22% for Grêmio at 4.62.
What is the draw priced at in this Brasileirão fixture?+
The draw is available at 3.54, implying an approximate 28% probability, making it a plausible outcome rather than a fringe option.
Is there a value bet for Botafogo vs Grêmio?+
No match-result value picks clear the site's threshold for this fixture. The one recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 1.76, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.04% against the model's fair-price estimate.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 3-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).