Brasileirão · Wed · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Match-result odds are closely bunched (2.64, 2.76, 3.33), reflecting a market with no dominant favourite.
Implied probabilities sit at roughly 38% for Botafogo, 36% for Vasco da Gama, and 30% for the draw.
The model's 45% confidence in a Botafogo win exceeds the market's implied 38%, generating a value edge of about 19%.
No additional value picks cleared the site's threshold elsewhere in the market, keeping the focus on this single recommendation.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.71 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.24 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.59 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
| 3-1 | 6.2% | 16.18 |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 16.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.90 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Botafogo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BOT | X | 2 · VDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.34 | 2.71 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.59 | 3.24 | 2.63 |
| Betsson | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.48 | 3.26 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Botafogo host Vasco da Gama in a Rio de Janeiro derby that carries weight in the Brasileirão table, and the betting market sees this as a close contest with a slight lean toward the home side. Best-priced odds have Botafogo at 2.64, Vasco da Gama at 2.76, and the draw at 3.33 with 1xBet, meaning the market implies roughly 38% for a Botafogo win, 36% for Vasco, and 30% for a draw. Those numbers show a genuinely tight three-way split rather than a clear favourite. Our model flags Botafogo to win at 2.64 as the standout angle, assigning it a 45% confidence level, well above the market-implied 38%, which produces a value edge of just over 19%. That gap is the central reason this fixture is worth a closer look, though the tight overall pricing across all three outcomes underlines how unpredictable this derby is rated to be.
Verdict: Botafogo to win at 2.64 stands out as the model's highest-value angle, backed by a meaningful gap between implied and modelled probability. Still, with all three outcomes priced closely and the draw at 3.33, this remains a moderate-risk selection in a genuinely competitive derby, not a formality. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 49% confidence rating.
Botafogo are the slight market favourite at 2.64 with 1xBet, just ahead of Vasco da Gama at 2.76, implying probabilities of about 38% and 36% respectively.
The draw is available at 3.33 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 30% chance according to the market.
The model rates Botafogo's win chance at 45%, notably higher than the market-implied 38% from the 2.64 odds, producing an estimated value edge of about 19%.
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama takes place Wed · 23:30 in the Brasileirão.
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