Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Bournemouth are favourites at 1.85 (around 54% implied), with Everton at 4.43 and the draw at 4.01, showing a meaningful but not extreme gap.
Our model rates Everton at a 28% fair probability against a 4.43 price, producing a notable value edge of 23.65%.
The draw also screens as value, with a 30% fair probability versus its 4.01 price for an edge of 19.82%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.76 has about 56% implied confidence but a marginally negative edge of -1.44%, so it is fair rather than a standout price.
Team form
Head-to-head: Bournemouth v Everton
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Bournemouth's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Bournemouth vs Everton: pre-match preview
Bournemouth host Everton in this Premier League fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Bournemouth are priced at 1.85 with 1xBet, translating to an implied probability of roughly 54%, while Everton drift out to 4.43 (around 23% implied) and the draw sits at 4.01 (about 25%). That price gap frames the hosts as clear favourites, though not overwhelmingly so given the double-digit percentage still attached to both the away win and the stalemate. Rather than backing a side outright, our model leans towards the total: Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 56%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -1.44%, meaning the price roughly matches or marginally lags fair value. The more interesting numbers from a value standpoint appear on Everton and the draw, both of which our model flags as priced above their fair probability.
Verdict: The model's recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, a roughly 56% confidence call on a goal-filled contest. With a slightly negative value edge, it is a fair-priced rather than a bargain bet, so treat it as moderate risk and stake responsibly.
How it settled: the tip was voided, for a flat-stake return of 0.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Bournemouth to win at odds of 2.16.
Bournemouth are the favourites at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance. Everton are the outsiders at 4.43, around 23% implied.
The draw is priced at 4.01 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 25%. Our model rates the draw's fair probability higher at 30%, flagging a value edge of 19.82%.
According to our model, the strongest value sits on Everton (edge 23.65%) and the draw (edge 19.82%), both priced above their fair probabilities. The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick has a marginally negative edge of -1.44%.
The tip was voided (0.00u at flat stakes).