Premier League · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Bournemouth are favourites at 1.93, implying just over 51 percent win probability according to the market.
Sunderland's best price of 4.72 implies around 21 percent, but the model's fair probability of 22 percent gives a value edge of 5.91 percent on the away side.
The draw at 3.98 implies roughly 25 percent, keeping the outcome market fairly open despite Bournemouth's favourite status.
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation at 2.07 carries a market-implied confidence of 48 percent and a slightly negative value edge of -1.48 percent, meaning it is close to fair value rather than a standout price advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.59 |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 9.34 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.35 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 14.12 |
| 0-0 | 6.5% | 15.36 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 1.09. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to win | 4.72 | +6.1% | 22% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Bournemouth's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BOU | X | 2 · SUN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.98 | 4.72 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.76 | 3.88 | 4.60 |
| Tipico | 1.72 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.72 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bournemouth host Sunderland in a Premier League fixture where the betting market has a clear view of the likely outcome. Bournemouth are priced at 1.93 with Betfair, which implies a probability of just over 51 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. Sunderland, at best odds of 4.72 with 1xBet, are priced at around 21 percent by the market, while the draw sits at 3.98, implying roughly 25 percent. Those numbers show a fixture where the hosts are favoured but not overwhelmingly so, leaving room for the draw and the visitors in the pricing. Away from the result market, our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 as its recommended angle, with a market-implied confidence of 48 percent, suggesting a game that could be tighter or lower-scoring than the raw match-result prices alone might indicate.
Verdict: The data points to Bournemouth as moderate favourites, with Sunderland offering a modest statistical edge as a value price rather than a likely outcome. The Under 2.5 goals pick is close to break-even by the model's own numbers, so it should be treated as a measured, low-margin selection rather than a high-confidence lean. Stake sizing should reflect that.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
Bournemouth are the market favourites, priced at 1.93 with Betfair, which implies just over a 51 percent chance of winning according to the odds.
The draw is priced at 3.98 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 25 percent probability.
According to the data, Sunderland's best price of 4.72 corresponds to a fair probability of 22 percent, giving a calculated value edge of 5.91 percent, though this remains a longshot outcome with Bournemouth favoured overall.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Premier League.
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