English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 5 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.02
LostResult
2-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
51%Pre-match conf.
-6.48%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Bragantino-SP are priced at 2.1, giving them the strongest implied win probability at roughly 48 percent among the three match outcomes.
02
Bahia (3.7) and the draw (3.68) are priced almost identically, both implying around 27 percent, suggesting little to separate an away win from a stalemate in the market's eyes.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.88 carries a market-implied probability near 53 percent, slightly above the model's own 51 percent confidence.
04
No outright value picks against the match-result market were flagged, indicating the standard win/draw/win odds are seen as fairly priced by our model.
Team form
BRA Bragantino-SP DLLWD
12 Sept 26 @ Botafogo 1-1
5 Sept 26 vs Bahia 2-3
29 Aug 26 @ São Paulo 1-2
23 Aug 26 vs Grêmio 1-0
15 Aug 26 @ Paranaense 1-1
BAH Bahia WWWWD
14 Sept 26 vs Clube do Remo 2-1
5 Sept 26 @ Bragantino 3-2
30 Aug 26 vs Internacional 3-2
23 Aug 26 @ Vitória 2-0
16 Aug 26 @ Chapecoense 3-3
Head-to-head: Bragantino-SP v Bahia
Full H2H history → L 5 Sept 26
Bragantino 2-3 BahiaBrasileirão
L 18 Mar 26
Bahia 2-0 BragantinoBrasileirão
L 2 Nov 25
Bahia 2-1 BragantinoBrasileirão
L 12 Jun 25
Bragantino 0-3 BahiaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Bragantino-SP's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Bragantino-SP vs Bahia: pre-match preview
Bragantino-SP host Bahia in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best available odds have Bragantino-SP at 2.1, which implies a win probability of roughly 48 percent, against Bahia's 3.7 (about 27 percent) and the draw at 3.68 (also close to 27 percent). That spread points to a competitive match rather than a lopsided one, with the three outcomes fairly evenly split in bookmaker pricing. Rather than backing a result outright, our model's recommended angle sits in the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, reflecting a scoreline expectation that leans toward an open, attacking contest. That price implies a bookmaker probability near 53 percent, while the model's own confidence sits a touch lower at 51 percent, worth bearing in mind before staking.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.88 is the only recommended angle here, but with a negative value edge of 3.8 percent, it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency. It reflects a moderately open scoreline expectation rather than a high-conviction edge, so stake sizing should stay conservative.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Bragantino-SP vs Bahia?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02.
Who is the favourite in Bragantino-SP vs Bahia?+
Bragantino-SP are the market favourites at odds of 2.1, implying a win probability of around 48 percent, compared to Bahia's 27 percent at 3.7.
What is the draw priced at for this Brasileirão match?+
The draw is available at 3.68, which implies a probability of roughly 27 percent, almost matching Bahia's own implied win chance.
Is there a value bet for this fixture?+
No outright value picks against the match-result market met the threshold. The model does highlight Over 2.5 goals at 1.88, though this carries a slight negative value edge of 3.8 percent rather than a confirmed edge.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).