Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Brest are priced at 2.0, implying roughly a 50 percent chance of victory, the strongest single outcome on the board
Angers (3.9) and the draw (3.85) sit almost level, each implying close to 26 percent, showing little to separate the alternatives to a Brest win
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries a model-estimated 51 percent confidence and a 5.62 percent value edge, the standout selection from the data provided
No additional value picks were flagged against the match-result market, meaning the win-draw-loss odds are viewed as fairly priced by the model
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 7.99 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.48 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.39 and 1.02. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Brest's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BRE | X | 2 · ANG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.94 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.94 | 3.75 | 3.95 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.94 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 3.74 | 3.81 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Brest host Angers in Ligue 1 with the home side clearly favoured by the betting market. A price of 2.0 on Brest implies a probability of roughly 50 percent, well ahead of the draw at 3.85 (about 26 percent) and Angers at 3.9 (also close to 26 percent). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a fixture Brest should dominate on paper, though a near one-in-four chance for both the draw and an Angers win shows the outcome is far from settled. Rather than backing the match result outright, our model points toward the game's overall goal output, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, a market it rates with 51 percent confidence and a value edge of 5.62 percent. That angle sidesteps the win-draw-loss guessing game and instead focuses on how open or cagey this Ligue 1 meeting is likely to be.
Verdict: The data favours Brest to win outright but without overwhelming certainty, given Angers and the draw are both priced close together. The stronger statistical edge lies in the Under 2.5 goals market at 2.07, a moderate-confidence pick worth considering as part of a balanced staking approach rather than a standalone lock.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | AS Monaco v Toulouse | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.70 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 52% confidence rating.
Brest are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.0, which implies roughly a 50 percent chance of winning, compared to about 26 percent for Angers.
The draw is priced at 3.85, implying close to a 26 percent probability, almost identical to Angers' implied chance of winning.
The match-result market shows no flagged value picks, but the model identifies value in the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 with a 5.62 percent edge and 51 percent confidence.
Brest vs Angers takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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