English ⚽ League One 🕒 2 Sept 2026
Our tip
Burton Albion to win
Odds
2.22
WonResult
4-1Final score
+1.22uProfit
47%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Burton Albion are priced at 2.22, implying roughly 45% win probability, the shortest price on the coupon.
02
Wimbledon's 3.7 price implies around 27%, notably behind both the home win and the draw.
03
The draw at 3.45 (about 29% implied) is priced closer to Wimbledon than to Burton, suggesting the market sees a competitive edge but not a landslide.
04
The model's 47% confidence in a Burton win against a 45% implied probability produces a 4.09% value edge, the only pick flagged above threshold.
Team form
BA Burton Albion DLDWW
19 Sept 26 vs Mansfield Town 2-2
12 Sept 26 @ Oxford United 0-3
5 Sept 26 vs Cambridge United 2-2
2 Sept 26 vs Wimbledon 4-1
22 Aug 26 @ Leicester City 2-1
WIM Wimbledon DWWLW
17 Sept 26 vs Milton Keynes Dons 0-0
12 Sept 26 vs Doncaster Rovers 1-0
7 Sept 26 @ Bromley FC 2-0
2 Sept 26 @ Burton Albion 1-4
30 Aug 26 vs Wigan Athletic 1-0
Head-to-head: Burton Albion v Wimbledon
W 2 Sept 26
Burton Albion 4-1 WimbledonLeague One
W/D/L shown from Burton Albion's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Burton Albion vs Wimbledon: pre-match preview
Burton Albion host AFC Wimbledon in a League One fixture where the betting market makes the home side the clear favourite. Best available odds of 2.22 on Burton imply a probability of roughly 45%, while Wimbledon at 3.7 sits closer to 27%, with the draw priced at 3.45, around 29%. That gap points to a fairly one-sided market view without being overwhelming, since Wimbledon and the draw combined still account for more than half the implied probability. Our model leans into this pricing, recommending Burton Albion to win at 2.22, giving a market-implied confidence of 47% against the raw implied 45%, a value edge of just over 4%. No additional value picks cleared the threshold elsewhere on the coupon, so the home win stands as the standout angle from the numbers available.
Verdict: Burton Albion's home win at 2.22 is the market favourite and the only selection showing measurable value, with a modest 4.09% edge over the implied probability. It is a reasonable, data-supported pick rather than a safe one; Wimbledon and the draw remain live outcomes, so stakes should be sized with normal bankroll discipline.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 4-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.22 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming League One fixtures
All League One tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Wycombe Wanderers v Reading | 2.60 | 3.70 | 2.73 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Bradford City v Barnsley | 1.78 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley FC | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Doncaster Rovers v Oxford United | 2.03 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Cambridge United v Wimbledon | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Notts County v Blackpool | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| 26 Sept 14:00 | Plymouth Argyle v Burton Albion | 1.64 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Burton Albion vs Wimbledon?+
Our tip was Burton Albion to win at odds of 2.22.
Who is favourite in the Burton Albion vs Wimbledon match?+
Burton Albion are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.22 which implies about a 45% chance of winning, compared to Wimbledon's 3.7 (around 27%).
What is the draw priced at for this League One fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.45, which implies roughly a 29% probability, sitting between the two teams' win chances but closer to Wimbledon's.
Is there value in betting on this fixture?+
The model flags one value pick: Burton Albion to win at 2.22, with a market-implied confidence of 47% versus the raw implied probability of 45%, giving a 4.09% edge. No other selections met the value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 4-1 (+1.22u at flat stakes).