Belgian Pro League · kicked off 5 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Union Saint-Gilloise are priced at 1.85, implying about a 54% chance of victory, making them the clear market favourites in this Pro League meeting.
Charleroi's 4.25 price implies only around a 23.5% win probability, though the model's fair-value estimate of 25% suggests a modest 4.96% edge on that price.
The draw is priced at 3.75, translating to an implied probability of roughly 27%, sitting between the two sides' win chances.
The model's strongest signal in this fixture is Under 2.5 goals at 2.02, carrying a 54% implied confidence and the largest flagged value edge at 9.08%.
W/D/L shown from Charleroi's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Union Saint-Gilloise head into this Belgian Pro League clash away at Charleroi as clear market favourites, with the best available price of 1.85 implying a win probability of roughly 54%. Charleroi, priced at 4.25, are seen as outsiders at around 23.5% implied chance, while the draw at 3.75 carries an implied probability near 27%. Together the three outcomes sum to just over 104%, reflecting a typical bookmaker margin rather than a genuinely tight contest on paper. Our model's headline suggestion for this fixture is not on the match result at all, but on the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 2.02, which the model rates at roughly 54% confidence and flags with a value edge close to 9%. Separately, Charleroi's outright price is also flagged as carrying some value against the model's fair probability estimate of 25%.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.02, backed by a 9.08% value edge and 54% model confidence, making it the more data-supported angle here versus the match result. Charleroi's 4.25 price also shows a smaller edge. Neither is risk-free; stake sizes should reflect that uncertainty remains.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:16 | KV Kortrijk v SK Beveren | 1.13 | 9.80 | 110.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02.
Union Saint-Gilloise are favourites, priced at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of winning this Belgian Pro League fixture.
The draw is available at 3.75, which implies an approximate 27% probability of the game ending level.
The model flags two areas of value: Charleroi's outright price of 4.25 shows a 4.96% edge versus its fair probability estimate, while Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 shows a larger 9.08% edge, making it the more notable recommendation.
The tip lost — final score 2-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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