Championship · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Bristol City are market favourites at 2.32, implying close to a 43% chance of winning.
Charlton Athletic (3.35, about 30%) and the draw (3.4, about 29%) are priced tightly together, pointing to an open match-result market.
The recommended angle, Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05, implies roughly 49% probability but carries a -5.01% value edge against the model's 46% confidence.
No side of the win-draw-win market meets our value threshold, so this preview focuses on the goals market rather than the outright result.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 0-1 | 12.0% | 8.35 |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | 8.44 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.41 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.30 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.44 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Charlton Athletic's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CA | X | 2 · BC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.31 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.18 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.20 | 3.19 | 2.32 |
| Betsson | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| 1xBet | 3.15 | 3.24 | 2.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.14 | 3.24 | 2.23 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bristol City head to The Valley as the market's clear pick against Charlton Athletic in this Championship fixture, with the best price on the visitors sitting at 2.32, implying roughly a 43% chance of victory. Charlton are priced at 3.35 (around 30%) while the draw is quoted at 3.4 (around 29%), a spread that shows the bookmakers see this as competitive despite favouring the away side. Rather than picking a match-result winner, our model's featured angle for this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05, which implies a probability near 49%. The model's own confidence sits at 46%, producing a -5.01% value edge, so this is presented as a talking point rather than a standout value play. No match-result selection cleared our value threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 Goals pick at 2.05 is the standout angle from the data, but its negative value edge (-5.01%) means it should not be treated as a clear-cut opportunity. It reflects a competitive fixture with no strong match-result favourite worth backing on value grounds. Stake modestly and manage bankroll with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.74 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05, with a 46% confidence rating.
Bristol City are the market favourites at odds of 2.32, which implies close to a 43% chance of winning, ahead of Charlton at 3.35 and the draw at 3.4.
The best available price on the draw is 3.4, implying roughly a 29% probability, which sits close to Charlton's own implied chance of winning.
None of the match-result prices clear our value threshold. The featured Over 2.5 Goals selection at 2.05 actually shows a -5.01% value edge against the model's 46% confidence, so it should be viewed with caution rather than as a strong value pick.
Charlton Athletic vs Bristol City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Championship.
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