Championship · kicked off 12 Sept 2026 — the tip we published before the match and how it settled.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Charlton are the favourites at 2.61, implying roughly 38% win probability, ahead of Portsmouth at 3.0 (about 33%) and the draw at 3.3 (about 30%).
The three-way market is fairly tight, with only about eight percentage points separating favourite and outright underdog in implied terms.
The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.22, translating to an implied probability near 45%, above the two individual match-result outcomes.
This bet carries a negative value edge of -4.69% against the model's 43% confidence figure, meaning the price does not clearly favour bettors on this occasion.
W/D/L shown from Charlton Athletic's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Charlton Athletic host Portsmouth in a Championship fixture where the betting market leans toward the away side despite the home advantage. Portsmouth are priced at 3.0 with LeoVegas, while Charlton sit as the more fancied side at 2.61 with Nordic Bet, and the draw is quoted at 3.3 with Codere. Converting those prices into implied probability puts Charlton at roughly 38%, Portsmouth at about 33%, and the draw close to 30%, a tight spread that suggests bookmakers see little to separate the two sides on paper. Rather than picking a match-result winner, our model points to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.22 with Nordic Bet. That price implies a bit over 45% probability, though the model's own confidence reading sits at 43%, with a modest negative value edge attached, so this is far from a nailed-on selection.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.22, a goals-market lean rather than a match-result pick. With the model's confidence at 43% against a negative value edge, this looks like a fair-price rather than a value bet, so it should be treated with caution and sensible staking.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-0, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip was Charlton Athletic to win at odds of 2.86.
Charlton Athletic are priced shorter at 2.61, making them the market's favourites, with Portsmouth at 3.0 as second favourites and the draw at 3.3.
The draw is available at 3.3 with Codere (IT), implying a probability of roughly 30%.
The recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.22, but it carries a negative value edge of -4.69% and 43% model confidence, so it is not flagged as a clear value opportunity.
The tip lost — final score 0-0 (-1.00u at flat stakes).
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