English ⚽ Premier League 🕒 30 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.24
LostResult
4-3Final score
-1.00uProfit
46%Pre-match conf.
+1.82%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Chelsea are the favourites at 2.18 (about 46% implied), but the gap to Brighton at 3.33 (about 30%) is not enormous.
02
The draw is priced at 3.9, implying roughly 26%, keeping a stalemate firmly in the picture.
03
Our model rates Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 as the recommended play, with a value edge of 3.15% and around 46% implied confidence.
04
The draw is also flagged for value, with a fair probability estimated at 29% against a 3.9 price, an edge of about 12.23%.
Team form
CHE Chelsea LDLWW
18 Sept 26 @ Brentford 0-3
12 Sept 26 vs Hull City 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Arsenal 1-2
30 Aug 26 vs Brighton Hove 4-3
24 Aug 26 @ Fulham 3-2
BAH Brighton and Hove Albion WWDLW
19 Sept 26 vs Arsenal 3-0
13 Sept 26 @ Coventry City 5-0
5 Sept 26 vs Leeds United 1-1
30 Aug 26 @ Chelsea 3-4
23 Aug 26 vs Aston Villa 4-0
Head-to-head: Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion
Full H2H history → W 30 Aug 26
Chelsea 4-3 Brighton HovePremier League
L 21 Apr 26
Brighton Hove 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
L 27 Sept 25
Chelsea 1-3 Brighton HovePremier League
W/D/L shown from Chelsea's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Chelsea vs Brighton and Hove Albion: pre-match preview
Chelsea host Brighton and Hove Albion in the Premier League, and the market leans towards the home side without treating them as an overwhelming favourite. Chelsea are priced at 2.18, which implies roughly a 46% chance of victory, while Brighton sit at 3.33, or about 30% in probability terms. The draw is available at 3.9, translating to close to 26%. That spread points to a competitive fixture where an away result is far from ruled out. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result market and towards the goals line: Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 carries a market-implied confidence of around 46% and a modest value edge of 3.15%. In short, the pricing suggests a Chelsea edge but a tight enough contest that a low-scoring outcome is plausible. The numbers frame this as a match to approach selectively rather than one with a clear standout on the result line.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.24, supported by a small 3.15% edge and roughly 46% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong lean, reflecting a tight-looking fixture. Stake responsibly and treat the value as marginal.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 4-3, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Chelsea vs Brighton and Hove Albion?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.24.
Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Brighton?+
Chelsea are the favourites at 2.18, which implies about a 46% chance of winning. Brighton are priced at 3.33, roughly 30% in probability terms.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.9 with 1xBet, implying around a 26% chance. Our model estimates a fair probability closer to 29%, flagging an edge of about 12.23%.
Is there any value in this match?+
Our model highlights two spots: Under 2.5 goals at 2.24 with a 3.15% edge, and the draw at 3.9 with a larger estimated edge of 12.23%. Both are model-based views, and outcomes remain uncertain.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 4-3 (-1.00u at flat stakes).