Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Chicago Fire are strong favourites at 1.53, implying around a 65% chance of the home win.
Charlotte FC are the clear underdogs at 5.9, but our model's fair probability of 22% outstrips the market's implied figure, creating a value edge of roughly 27%.
The draw is priced at 5.04, implying close to 20%, reflecting the market's view that a stalemate is a genuine but secondary outcome.
The price gap between the sides is wide, so backing Charlotte is a lower-probability, higher-return play rather than an expected result.
Team form
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire v Charlotte FC
W/D/L shown from Chicago Fire's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC: pre-match preview
This MLS clash pits Chicago Fire against Charlotte FC, with the bookmakers leaning firmly toward the hosts. Chicago Fire are priced at 1.53, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 65%, marking them as clear favourites on home turf. Charlotte FC, by contrast, are out at 5.9 with Nordic Bet, implying only about 17% from the raw price, while the draw sits at 5.04, or close to 20%. The gap between the two sides is sizeable, and the odds tell a straightforward story about where the market expects the balance of play to fall. Our model, however, sees things differently on Charlotte: it assigns the visitors a fair probability of 22%, higher than the price suggests, producing a value edge of about 27%. That disagreement between our numbers and the market is exactly where our recommended bet on Charlotte FC to win originates.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Charlotte FC to win at 5.9, a value pick driven by a notable edge over the market's price rather than by an expectation they are favourites. This is a high-risk, high-reward wager with only about 22% modelled probability, so stake responsibly and treat it accordingly.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Charlotte FC to win at odds of 5.90.
Chicago Fire are the favourites at 1.53, which implies a market probability of around 65%. Charlotte FC are the underdogs at 5.9.
The draw is priced at 5.04 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 20% chance of the match ending level.
Our model identifies value on Charlotte FC at 5.9, assigning them a fair probability of 22% against the price and producing an edge of about 27%. It is a value pick, not a prediction of a certain outcome.
The tip lost — final score 2-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).