Serie A · Sun · 10:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Como are the nominal favourites at 2.62 (implied about 38 percent), narrowly ahead of AS Roma at 2.88 (implied about 35 percent).
The draw at 3.67 (implied about 27 percent) keeps the outright market tightly bunched, with no side commanding a clear statistical edge.
The model's recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.06, offering a 5.85 percent value edge against a 51 percent implied confidence level.
No value picks were flagged in the standard match-result market, suggesting the goals total is the more clearly priced opportunity here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.77 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.77 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.95 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.36 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.22 and 1.26. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Como's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · COM | X | 2 · AR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.56 | 3.56 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.55 | 2.66 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Como host AS Roma at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in a Serie A fixture where the match-result market is unusually tight. Best-priced odds have Como as the nominal favourite at 2.62 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 38 percent, while AS Roma sit at 2.88 with Unibet (NL), implying around 35 percent. The draw, priced at 3.67, adds a further 27 percent, underlining how evenly the bookmakers view this contest despite Como's slight edge. With no single side priced as a clear favourite, our model looks past the outright market and instead flags value in the goals market: Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 on 1xBet, carrying a 51 percent implied confidence and a 5.85 percent edge over the model's own assessment. That angle, rather than the home or away side, is where the numbers currently point.
Verdict: With the 1X2 market essentially a three-way coin toss, the standout angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.06, backed by a modest 5.85 percent edge and just-above-even model confidence. It is a reasoned lean rather than a strong certainty, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 53% confidence rating.
Based on best available odds, Como are the slight market favourites at 2.62, just ahead of AS Roma at 2.88, with the draw priced at 3.67.
The draw is available at 3.67 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of roughly 27 percent.
The clearest value flagged by the model is not in the match result but in the goals market, with Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 offering a 5.85 percent edge and 51 percent implied confidence; no match-result value picks met the threshold.
Como vs AS Roma takes place Sun · 10:30 in the Serie A.
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