English ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 6 Sept 2026
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.27
WonResult
1-2Final score
+1.27uProfit
46%Pre-match conf.
-2.99%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Coritiba are market favourites at 2.35, implying about 42.5% win probability, ahead of Mirassol (3.29, 30.4%) and the draw (3.31, 30.2%).
02
The three match-result outcomes are relatively close in implied probability, suggesting the market does not see Coritiba as a heavy favourite.
03
The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.27, with a 46% implied confidence and a 4.17% value edge over consensus pricing.
04
No other markets currently clear the value threshold, so this fixture's standout angle is the goals total rather than the result itself.
Team form
COR Coritiba LDLWW
19 Sept 26 @ Vasco da Gama 0-5
12 Sept 26 vs Paranaense 3-3
6 Sept 26 vs Mirassol 1-2
31 Aug 26 @ Clube do Remo 3-2
23 Aug 26 vs Corinthians 2-1
MIR Mirassol WDWLD
19 Sept 26 vs Botafogo 2-0
13 Sept 26 vs Vitória 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Coritiba 2-1
2 Sept 26 @ Flamengo 0-2
30 Aug 26 vs Palmeiras 1-1
Head-to-head: Coritiba v Mirassol
Full H2H history → L 6 Sept 26
Coritiba 1-2 MirassolBrasileirão
W 18 Mar 26
Mirassol 0-1 CoritibaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Coritiba's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Coritiba vs Mirassol: pre-match preview
Coritiba are installed as favourites for this Brasileirão meeting with Mirassol, with the best price on a home win at 2.35 implying roughly a 42.5% chance of victory according to the market. Mirassol, priced at 3.29, are given an implied probability of around 30.4%, while the draw at 3.31 sits at a similar 30.2%, making this a fairly open contest on paper rather than a one-sided affair. With the three outcomes closely bunched between roughly 30% and 43%, the bookmakers are not backing Coritiba overwhelmingly, just modestly. Away from the match-result market, our model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.27 as the standout angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 46% and a calculated value edge of 4.17% versus the wider market consensus. No side markets beyond that goals line clear our value threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.27 offers a modest 4.17% edge with 46% implied confidence, making it a reasonable rather than overwhelming pick. It reflects a competitive fixture where the match-result market is tightly priced, so this should be treated as a measured, risk-aware bet rather than a strong lean.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-2, for a flat-stake return of +1.27 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 6 Sept 26
Coritiba to winfinal score 1-2
2.46 -1.00u Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Coritiba vs Mirassol?+
Our tip was Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.27.
Who is favourite between Coritiba and Mirassol?+
Coritiba are the market favourites at 2.35, which implies roughly a 42.5% chance of winning, compared to about 30.4% for Mirassol at 3.29.
What is the draw priced at in this Brasileirão fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.31, implying an approximate 30.2% probability, almost identical to Mirassol's implied win chance.
Is there value in this Coritiba vs Mirassol match according to the data?+
The main value identified is on Over 2.5 goals at 2.27, showing a 4.17% edge and 46% implied confidence; no match-result selections currently clear the value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-2 (+1.27u at flat stakes).