Liga MX · Sat · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Toluca are marginally favoured at 2.35 (about 42.6% implied probability), just ahead of Cruz Azul at 2.65 (37.7%).
The draw is priced highest among the three outcomes at 3.5, implying roughly 28.6%, suggesting bookmakers see it as the least likely single result.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.54 carries an implied probability near 64.9%, above the model's own 60% confidence reading.
The value edge on the Over 2.5 pick is negative (-7.44%), meaning the market price does not currently offer a favourable edge by the model's calculation, and no separate value picks cleared the site's threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.50 |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 11.20 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
| 2-0 | 6.7% | 14.84 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.51 and 1.32. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CA | X | 2 · TOL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.28 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.48 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga MX action brings Cruz Azul and Toluca together, with the betting market painting a tightly contested match. Best prices have Toluca as narrow favourites at 2.35, implying a probability of roughly 42.6%, while Cruz Azul sit at 2.65 (about 37.7% implied) and the draw is priced at 3.5, translating to close to 28.6%. That spread suggests bookmakers see little separating the two sides in terms of pure match-result outcome, with home advantage or attacking edge likely tipping the scales slightly toward Toluca. Away from the 1X2 market, the model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.54, reflecting an implied probability near 64.9% against a stated confidence of 60%. That gap produces a negative value edge, so while goals look plausible based on the pricing, this isn't flagged as a strong value opportunity by the model's own metric.
Verdict: The market leans marginally toward Toluca, with Cruz Azul close behind and the draw least favoured. The Over 2.5 goals recommendation is plausible given the implied probability, but its negative value edge means it isn't a standout price; treat it as a moderate-risk selection and size stakes with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Pachuca v Tijuana | 1.76 | 4.06 | 5.10 |
| 21 Sept 00:00 | Toluca v Santos Laguna | 1.27 | 7.60 | 11.00 |
| 21 Sept 02:10 | Querétaro v León | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| 26 Sept 01:00 | Atlante FC v Monterrey | 3.81 | 3.85 | 1.94 |
| 26 Sept 03:00 | Tijuana v Atlas | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 26 Sept 23:07 | Guadalajara v Querétaro | 1.41 | 4.60 | 6.25 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Tigres v Puebla | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| 27 Sept 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Pachuca | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.54, with a 60% confidence rating.
Based on the best available odds, Toluca are the narrow favourites at 2.35, just ahead of Cruz Azul at 2.65, implying probabilities of about 42.6% and 37.7% respectively.
The draw is priced at 3.5, which implies a probability of roughly 28.6%, making it the least likely single outcome according to the market.
The model's Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.54 has a 60% confidence rating against an implied probability of about 64.9%, resulting in a negative value edge of -7.44%, and no other picks cleared the site's value threshold.
Cruz Azul vs Toluca takes place Sat · 23:00 in the Liga MX.
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