Brasileirão · Thu · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Cruzeiro are priced at 1.86, implying roughly a 54 percent win probability and clear favourite status over Sao Paulo.
Sao Paulo's 4.47 price implies only about 22 percent, positioning them as the outsider in this Brasileirão meeting.
The draw at 3.57 carries an implied probability of around 28 percent, a live but secondary outcome compared to a home win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.06 carries an implied probability near 49 percent versus a modelled 47 percent confidence, giving a negative edge of about -3.94 percent rather than a market-beating value price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.9% | 7.20 |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.18 |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 9.62 |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | 10.81 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.50 and 0.88. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Cruzeiro's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CRU | X | 2 · SP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.56 | 4.49 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.80 | 3.45 | 4.35 |
| Betsson | 1.78 | 3.55 | 4.30 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.78 | 3.46 | 4.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.25 |
| 888sport | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Cruzeiro host Sao Paulo in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. At 1.86 with 1xBet, Cruzeiro's price implies a win probability of roughly 54 percent, making them clear favourites on paper. Sao Paulo, priced at 4.47, are seen as considerably less likely to win, with an implied chance of around 22 percent, while the draw at 3.57 sits at about 28 percent implied probability. Those figures add up to more than 100 percent once the bookmaker's margin is factored in, which is standard for match-result markets. Away from the win-draw-win market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.06 as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 49 percent against a modelled confidence of 47 percent, meaning the calculated edge here is slightly negative rather than a clear value opportunity.
Verdict: The market makes Cruzeiro clear favourites, with the draw and a Sao Paulo win seen as less likely outcomes. The model's suggested Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.06 is a plausible line but shows a slightly negative value edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a standout value play. Bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Cruzeiro are the clear market favourites at 1.86 with 1xBet, implying an approximate 54 percent win probability, compared to Sao Paulo's 4.47 price and roughly 22 percent implied chance.
The draw is priced at 3.57 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 28 percent.
The Over 2.5 goals price of 2.06 implies about 49 percent probability, slightly above the model's 47 percent confidence figure, resulting in a negative edge of roughly -3.94 percent, so it is not a confirmed value bet by the site's own metric.
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo takes place Thu · 00:30 in the Brasileirão.
English 
