English ⚽ Championship 🕒 22 Aug 2026
Our tip
Derby County to win
Odds
2.06
LostResult
2-2Final score
-1.00uProfit
52%Pre-match conf.
+0.98%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Derby County are the market favourites at 1.73 (about 58% implied), with Cardiff City a distant outsider at 5.0 (roughly 20%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.0, implying near 25%, reflecting a fixture the market sees as skewed but not one-sided.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 carries a market-implied confidence of about 48%, close to a coin flip.
04
That Over 2.5 pick shows a negative value edge of -5.4%, so the current price offers no clear mathematical advantage.
Team form
DC Derby County DLLLW
19 Sept 26 @ Burnley 1-1
12 Sept 26 vs Birmingham 1-2
9 Sept 26 vs West Brom 0-1
5 Sept 26 @ West Ham 0-3
1 Sept 26 @ Portsmouth 2-0
CC Cardiff City WLDLL
19 Sept 26 vs Charlton 3-1
12 Sept 26 @ Bolton 0-1
8 Sept 26 vs Stoke 1-1
5 Sept 26 @ Portsmouth 0-2
2 Sept 26 @ QPR 1-2
Head-to-head: Derby County v Cardiff City
D 22 Aug 26
Derby County 2-2 CardiffChampionship
W/D/L shown from Derby County's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Derby County vs Cardiff City: pre-match preview
Derby County host Cardiff City in this Championship fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Derby are priced at 1.73 with Betsson, implying roughly a 58% chance of the home win, while Cardiff drift out to 5.0 at Coolbet, an implied probability near 20%. The draw sits at 4.0, translating to about 25%. Those numbers frame Derby as clear favourites, though a price of 1.73 is far from a formality and leaves plenty of room for an upset or stalemate. Our model does not flag a value edge on the match result; instead it leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence around 48%. Notably, that pick shows a negative value edge of -5.4%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than the model believes it should be. Read this preview as a guide to how the odds are shaped rather than a lock on any outcome.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.97, but with roughly 48% implied confidence and a -5.4% value edge, this is a marginal call rather than a standout. Treat it as a modest lean at best and stake responsibly, since the price offers no edge on the numbers.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Derby County vs Cardiff City?+
Our tip was Derby County to win at odds of 2.06.
Who is the favourite for Derby County vs Cardiff City?+
Derby County are favourites at 1.73 with Betsson, implying about a 58% chance. Cardiff City are outsiders at 5.0, around a 20% implied probability.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 4.0 with Codere (IT), which implies roughly a 25% chance of the match ending level.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.4%, so the price offers no mathematical advantage.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).