English ⚽ Championship 🕒 9 Sept 2026
Our tip
Derby County to win
Odds
2.80
LostResult
0-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
39%Pre-match conf.
-12.5%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Pinnacle
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Derby County are market favourites at 2.33, implying roughly a 43 percent win probability, the shortest price of the three outcomes.
02
West Bromwich Albion at 3.25 implies about a 31 percent chance, with the draw close behind at 3.4 (around 29 percent), pointing to a tightly-priced spread across outcomes.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.94 carries a -7.17 percent value edge, meaning the model's estimated confidence (48 percent) does not clearly exceed the price offered.
04
No value picks cleared the threshold in the match-result market, suggesting the bookmaker prices broadly align with market consensus for this fixture.
Team form
DC Derby County DLLLW
19 Sept 26 @ Burnley 1-1
12 Sept 26 vs Birmingham 1-2
9 Sept 26 vs West Brom 0-1
5 Sept 26 @ West Ham 0-3
1 Sept 26 @ Portsmouth 2-0
WBA West Bromwich Albion LDWWD
20 Sept 26 @ Wolverhampton 0-1
12 Sept 26 vs QPR 1-1
9 Sept 26 @ Derby County 1-0
5 Sept 26 vs Watford 1-0
2 Sept 26 vs Charlton 1-1
Head-to-head: Derby County v West Bromwich Albion
Full H2H history → L 9 Sept 26
Derby County 0-1 West BromChampionship
D 23 Jan 26
Derby County 1-1 West BromChampionship
W 13 Sept 25
West Brom 0-1 Derby CountyChampionship
W/D/L shown from Derby County's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion: pre-match preview
Derby County host West Bromwich Albion in a Championship fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them prohibitive favourites. Best-priced odds have Derby at 2.33, which implies a win probability of roughly 43 percent, against West Brom's 3.25 (about 31 percent) and a draw priced at 3.4 (around 29 percent). Those numbers point to a competitive contest with no side dominating the market's expectations. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.94 as the recommended angle, though it carries a modest negative value edge of -7.17 percent against a 48 percent confidence read. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in the market consensus comparison, so this preview leans on straightforward price-reading rather than any hidden edge.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.94 is the only actionable angle from this data set, but its negative value edge means it should be treated as a moderate-risk, model-suggested play rather than a market inefficiency. With no clear value elsewhere and a tightly-priced match result, disciplined staking is advisable.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 19:00 | West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers | 1.55 | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Swansea City v Norwich City | 2.66 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | 2.31 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Charlton Athletic v Bristol City | 3.35 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2.21 | 3.73 | 3.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City | 2.72 | 3.75 | 2.70 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sheffield United v Lincoln City | 2.03 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Preston North End v Millwall | 2.66 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +9 | 10 |
| 12 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 15 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 16 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Lincoln City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston NE | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion?+
Our tip was Derby County to win at odds of 2.80.
Who are the favourites in the Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion match?+
Derby County are the market favourites, priced at 2.33, which implies a win probability of about 43 percent, ahead of West Bromwich Albion at 3.25 (around 31 percent).
What is the draw priced at for this Championship fixture?+
The best available draw price is 3.4, implying a probability of roughly 29 percent, close to West Brom's implied win chance.
Is there a value bet for Derby vs West Brom?+
No match-result value picks cleared the model's threshold for this fixture. The only flagged angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.94, though it shows a slight negative value edge of -7.17 percent rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).