Primeira Liga · Today · 17:01 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Estoril are strong favourites at 1.77, implying roughly a 56.5 percent chance of victory according to the market.
Casa Pia are outsiders at 4.1, implying only about 24.4 percent, with the draw priced at 3.5 (around 28.6 percent).
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent, showing the standard bookmaker margin embedded in these prices.
The recommended over 2.5 goals bet at 1.85 carries a 50 percent implied confidence but a negative 8.26 percent value edge, meaning it is not flagged as a genuine market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.8% | 7.84 |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | 8.92 |
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.06 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.77 |
| 3-0 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.76 and 0.86. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia to win | 4.82 | +289.5% | 81% | 99 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Estoril's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EST | X | 2 · CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 100.00 | 7.20 | 1.15 |
| Coolbet | 66.00 | 7.50 | 1.13 |
| Pinnacle | 2.92 | 1.97 | 4.82 |
| Winamax (FR) | 60.00 | 7.00 | 1.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 81.00 | 7.00 | 1.09 |
| 888sport | 71.00 | 7.50 | 1.08 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Estoril host Casa Pia in a Primeira Liga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Estoril are priced at 1.77 with PMU, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 56.5 percent, making them the clear favourites on paper. Casa Pia sit at 4.1 with Betclic, implying around 24.4 percent, while the draw at 3.5 implies close to 28.6 percent. Those three numbers add up to more than 100 percent, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin built into the pricing. Away from the match-result market, our model highlights an over 2.5 goals angle at 1.85 with Unibet, carrying a market-implied confidence of 50 percent. Notably, this pick shows a negative value edge of -8.26 percent against market consensus, so it should be read as a plausible scenario rather than a data-backed edge. No other selections cleared our value threshold for this game.
Verdict: The over 2.5 goals selection at 1.85 is the only recommendation from the data, but its negative value edge of -8.26 percent means it does not represent a clear market mismatch. Treat it as a moderate-risk option rather than a favoured value play, and size any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:00 | Santa Clara v Braga | 34.00 | 1.38 | 30.00 |
| 20 Sept 19:30 | FC Porto v Benfica | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.64 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 2 | SL Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Acad. Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | CD Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -14 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 5.00, with a 19% confidence rating.
Estoril are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.77 with PMU, which implies roughly a 56.5 percent chance of winning, compared to Casa Pia's 4.1 odds implying about 24.4 percent.
The draw is available at 3.5 with Betclic, implying a probability of around 28.6 percent.
The model highlights an over 2.5 goals bet at 1.85 with a 50 percent implied confidence, but this carries a negative value edge of -8.26 percent versus market consensus, so it is not a strong value signal. No other selections met the value threshold for this game.
Estoril vs Casa Pia takes place Today · 17:01 in the Primeira Liga.
English 
