Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
Manchester United are the marginal favourites at 2.59 (about 39% implied), just ahead of Everton at 2.9 (about 34%).
The narrow price gap points to a tightly rated match rather than a comfortable favourite.
Our model flags Everton to win at 2.9 as value, with a small edge of roughly 3.59% over a 36% implied confidence.
The draw is priced at 3.52 and also shows a modest edge of about 4.79% against a fair probability estimate of 30%.
Team form
Head-to-head: Everton v Manchester United
Full H2H history →W/D/L shown from Everton's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Everton vs Manchester United: pre-match preview
This Premier League meeting between Everton and Manchester United sees the market lean slightly towards the visitors. Manchester United are priced at 2.59, translating to an implied probability of roughly 39%, while Everton sit at 2.9, or about 34% in the market's eyes. That is a narrow gap, marking this out as a closely rated contest rather than a clear mismatch. The draw is available at 3.52, implying around 28%. Our model, however, sees value on the home side: Everton to win at 2.9 carries a small edge of about 3.59% against the market-implied confidence of 36%. In other words, our numbers suggest Everton's true chances may be a touch better than the odds indicate. With the price gap so slim, this is a fixture where the underdog tag on Everton looks softer than the raw odds first suggest, making the home value pick the focus here.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Everton to win at 2.9, backed by a modest 3.59% value edge. With the market pricing this as a close call, it remains a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong lean. Treat the small edge accordingly and stake within your own limits.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 2-2, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Premier League fixtures
All Premier League tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Premier League standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip was Everton to win at odds of 2.90.
Manchester United are the slight favourites at 2.59, implying about a 39% chance, just ahead of Everton at 2.9 (around 34%). The gap is narrow, so the market rates it a close contest.
The draw is priced at 3.52 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 28% chance. Our model estimates a fair probability nearer 30%, suggesting a small value edge of about 4.79%.
Our model identifies Everton to win at 2.9 as the recommended value pick, with an edge of around 3.59%. The draw at 3.52 also shows a modest edge, but both are small margins in a closely priced game.
The tip lost — final score 2-2 (-1.00u at flat stakes).