English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 5 Sept 2026
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.20
WonResult
1-2Final score
+1.20uProfit
47%Pre-match conf.
+6.8%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Unibet (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Fiorentina are strong favourites at 1.85 (about 54% implied), with Torino well behind at 4.9 (about 20%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.74, implying roughly a 27% chance of honours ending even.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.18 has a market-implied confidence near 45%.
04
No selection cleared the value threshold, and the Over 2.5 pick actually carries a small negative edge of -1.41%.
Team form
FIO Fiorentina DWLLL
20 Sept 26 vs Napoli 1-1
11 Sept 26 @ Venezia FC 4-2
5 Sept 26 vs Torino 1-2
29 Aug 26 vs Frosinone 0-3
24 Aug 26 @ Roma 0-4
TOR Torino DLWLL
19 Sept 26 @ Bologna 1-1
14 Sept 26 vs Roma 0-2
5 Sept 26 @ Fiorentina 2-1
29 Aug 26 @ Sassuolo 1-2
23 Aug 26 vs Milan 1-2
Head-to-head: Fiorentina v Torino
Full H2H history → L 5 Sept 26
Fiorentina 1-2 TorinoSerie A
D 7 Feb 26
Fiorentina 2-2 TorinoSerie A
D 31 Aug 25
Torino 0-0 FiorentinaSerie A
W/D/L shown from Fiorentina's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Fiorentina vs Torino: pre-match preview
Fiorentina host Torino in this Serie A fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Fiorentina are priced at 1.85, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as clear home favourites. Torino are the outsiders at 4.9, implying around 20%, while the draw sits at 3.74, or about 27%. That spread points to a market that expects Fiorentina to control proceedings without treating the outcome as a formality. Our model, rather than backing the result, leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%. It is worth flagging that this pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.41%, meaning the price offers no clear advantage over the market consensus. Approach it as a lean based on goal expectations rather than a standout value opportunity, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, reflecting an expectation of an open game rather than a strong result lean. With a -1.41% edge, this is a marginal call offering no clear market advantage, so treat it as a modest lean and keep stakes measured.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-2, for a flat-stake return of +1.20 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | AC Milan v Lecce | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Fiorentina vs Torino?+
Our tip was Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20.
Who is the favourite for Fiorentina vs Torino?+
Fiorentina are the favourites at 1.85, implying roughly a 54% chance. Torino are the outsiders at 4.9, around 20% implied.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.74 with 1xBet, which implies about a 27% probability of a stalemate.
Is there any value in this fixture?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.18 even shows a small negative edge of -1.41%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-2 (+1.20u at flat stakes).