Brasileirão · Fri · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Fluminense are priced at 1.56, implying roughly a 64% win probability according to the market, making them the clear favourites in this Brasileirão clash.
Coritiba's 6.8 price implies only around a 14.7% chance of an away win, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides in the eyes of bookmakers.
The draw is priced at 3.96, translating to roughly a 25% implied probability, a live secondary outcome given the favourite's dominant pricing.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.06 carries a -3.94% value edge versus the model's 47% confidence, meaning the market price is not obviously underestimating this outcome.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 9.99 |
| 2-1 | 10.0% | 10.04 |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 3-1 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
| 3-0 | 6.5% | 15.31 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.98 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Fluminense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FLU | X | 2 · COR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 3.96 | 6.76 |
| Betsson | 1.55 | 3.70 | 6.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.51 | 3.84 | 6.55 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.48 | 3.90 | 6.70 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.52 | 3.60 | 6.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fluminense host Coritiba in a Brasileirão fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Fluminense are priced at 1.56 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 64%, while Coritiba's 6.8 price points to around 15% and the draw at 3.96 sits near 25%. Those numbers paint a clear picture of a home side considered strongly dominant on paper, at least according to bookmakers, with Coritiba cast as a significant underdog. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 at 2.06 as its recommended angle. That price implies a probability close to 48.5%, slightly above the model's own 47% confidence reading, which is worth keeping in mind when sizing any stake around this fixture.
Verdict: The suggested angle is Over 2.5 goals at 2.06, with the model's 47% confidence sitting close to, but slightly below, the price's implied probability. This is not a standout value play given the negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong recommendation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Vitoria v Cruzeiro | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Corinthians v Fluminense | 2.30 | 3.22 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 21:30 | Flamengo v Bragantino-SP | 1.39 | 5.70 | 10.00 |
| 20 Sept 22:30 | Atletico Paranaense v Bahia | 2.36 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Bragantino-SP v Mirassol | 1.79 | 3.65 | 4.75 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Remo v Grêmio | 2.63 | 3.35 | 2.77 |
| 7 Oct 22:30 | Internacional v Corinthians | 2.45 | 3.17 | 3.13 |
| 7 Oct 23:00 | Vitoria v Chapecoense | 1.62 | 3.96 | 5.93 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | +31 | 57 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Bahia | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | +6 | 45 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Mineiro | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | +4 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | +1 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | +3 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | +2 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | -4 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -6 | 28 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -24 | 18 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Fluminense are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.56, which implies roughly a 64% chance of victory, compared to Coritiba's much longer 6.8 price.
The draw is available at 3.96, implying an approximate 25% probability, making it a secondary but plausible outcome behind the Fluminense win.
No clear standout value picks were identified versus market consensus for the match result. The model's featured angle, Over 2.5 goals at 2.06, actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -3.94%, so it should be approached with modest expectations rather than as a confident value bet.
Fluminense vs Coritiba takes place Fri · 00:30 in the Brasileirão.
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