English ⚽ Eliteserien 🕒 13 Sept 2026
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.23
WonResult
1-1Final score
+1.23uProfit
48%Pre-match conf.
-0.45%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at LeoVegas (SE)
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Fredrikstad are the shortest-priced outcome at 2.55, but the gap to Sarpsborg's 2.77 is narrow, implying only a modest favourite status.
02
The draw at 3.61 carries an implied probability of about 28%, keeping all three match-result outcomes within realistic reach.
03
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.23 shows a 7.43% value edge against the model's assessment, the largest identified edge in this preview.
04
No outright value picks against market consensus were flagged for the win-draw-win market, reflecting how closely the three prices are clustered.
Team form
FF Fredrikstad FK DDLWW
20 Sept 26 @ Vålerenga 1-1
13 Sept 26 vs Sarpsborg FK 1-1
4 Sept 26 vs Bodø/Glimt 1-2
30 Aug 26 @ Lillestrom 4-1
16 Aug 26 vs Kristiansund BK 1-0
SF Sarpsborg FK LDDDL
18 Sept 26 vs KFUM 1-3
13 Sept 26 @ Fredrikstad FK 1-1
6 Sept 26 vs Vålerenga 2-2
30 Aug 26 @ Tromso 0-0
16 Aug 26 vs Sandefjord 1-2
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad FK v Sarpsborg FK
D 13 Sept 26
Fredrikstad FK 1-1 Sarpsborg FKEliteserien
W/D/L shown from Fredrikstad FK's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Fredrikstad FK vs Sarpsborg FK: pre-match preview
Eliteserien action brings Fredrikstad FK and Sarpsborg FK together in a fixture where the match-result market is fairly tight. Fredrikstad are priced at 2.55 with Unibet, making them the nominal favourites, while Sarpsborg sit close behind at 2.77 with Pinnacle. The draw is offered at 3.61, also with Pinnacle. Converting these best-available prices into implied probability, Fredrikstad are seen as roughly 39% likely to win, Sarpsborg around 36%, and a draw about 28%, figures that point to a genuinely competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. Rather than leaning on the outright market, our model's recommended angle looks at the game's total goals, favouring Under 2.5 at 2.23 with LeoVegas. That price implies a probability near 45%, and the model attaches a 48% confidence level with a value edge of 7.43%, suggesting the goals market may offer more room for an edge than the result market itself.
Verdict: The standout angle here is Under 2.5 goals at 2.23, backed by a modest but genuine 7.43% value edge and 48% model confidence. It is not a one-sided call, and the closely priced match-result market underlines the uncertainty in this fixture, so bettors should size stakes accordingly.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 1-1, for a flat-stake return of +1.23 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Eliteserien fixtures
All Eliteserien tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:16 | SK Brann v Bodø/Glimt | 2.18 | 2.88 | 7.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Fredrikstad FK vs Sarpsborg FK?+
Our tip was Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23.
Who is favourite in the Fredrikstad FK vs Sarpsborg FK match?+
Fredrikstad FK are the marginal favourites at 2.55, with Sarpsborg FK priced close behind at 2.77, indicating a fairly even contest rather than a clear favourite.
What are the odds on the draw for this Eliteserien fixture?+
The best available draw price is 3.61 with Pinnacle, which implies a probability of roughly 28% based on the market.
Is there value in betting on this Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg game?+
The match-result market shows no clear value picks above the threshold, but the model identifies value in Under 2.5 goals at 2.23, citing a 7.43% edge and 48% confidence.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 1-1 (+1.23u at flat stakes).