Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Leverkusen's 2.26 price implies roughly a 44% win chance, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes.
Mainz at 3.08 are priced with around a 32% implied probability, keeping them a live outsider rather than a long shot.
The draw at 4.01 carries an implied probability near 25%, the least likely single outcome on the board.
The Under 3.25 goals line at 1.88 offers a 4.13% value edge with 55% model confidence, the only pick clearing our threshold this round.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% | 9.60 |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.15 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
| 0-1 | 6.6% | 15.15 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.58 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 1.62. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 to win | 3.15 | +4.7% | 33% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FM0 | X | 2 · BL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.96 | 2.34 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.93 | 3.85 | 2.23 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
| Tipico | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.20 |
| Betsson | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.12 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bayer Leverkusen head to Mainz as clear favourites for this Bundesliga meeting, with the best price of 2.26 implying a win probability of roughly 44%. FSV Mainz 05, priced at 3.08, are given around 32% by the market, while the draw at 4.01 sits near 25% - a gap that points to a moderately one-sided contest without making Leverkusen overwhelming favourites. Rather than backing a match-result outcome outright, our model turns to the goals market, flagging Under 3.25 goals at 1.88 as the standout angle, carrying an implied confidence of 55% and a value edge of just over 4% against Pinnacle's pricing. No side of the 1x2 market currently clears our value threshold, so this preview leans on the total-goals read as the more efficient angle into the fixture.
Verdict: With no match-result selection offering clear value, the Under 3.25 goals price of 1.88 stands out as the more measured angle, backed by a modest 4.13% edge and 55% model confidence. It is not a high-conviction certainty, so stake sizing should reflect that moderate edge rather than treat it as a lock.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.25 goals at odds of 1.96, with a 49% confidence rating.
Bayer Leverkusen are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.26, which implies a win probability of around 44%, compared with about 32% for Mainz.
The draw is available at 4.01, implying roughly a 25% chance, making it the least likely of the three outcomes based on current pricing.
No match-result selection currently clears our value threshold, but the model highlights Under 3.25 goals at 1.88 as a value pick, offering about a 4.13% edge with 55% confidence.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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